In the dynamic landscape of cross - border e - commerce, the recent twists and turns of the T86 policy in the US have sent shockwaves through the industry. The rapid sequence of events, from the cancellation to the suspension of the T86 policy within just three days, has left many cross - border entrepreneurs scratching their heads and pondering the future of the US cross - border market in 2025.

I. The Turbulent T86 Policy Changes On February 4, 2025, Trump announced a series of measures targeting Chinese goods, including imposing tariffs ranging from 10% to 35% and eliminating the $800 de minimis exemption policy. This sudden shift created chaos among customs inspectors, postal and courier services, and online retailers. However, on February 7 local time, Trump signed an executive order to restore the de minimis tax threshold for small Chinese packages (valued under $800) "until a sufficient system is established to comprehensively and promptly handle tariff revenues". This gave the US Department of Commerce time to make the order feasible.

II. The Background of Low - value Package Duty - free Policies

A. In the US Since the US raised its tax - free threshold from $200 to $800 in 2016, Chinese cross - border e - commerce has flooded the US market through the direct - mail small - package model. In 2024, approximately 60% of the packages entering the US under the "de minimis exemption" were from China. This influx has squeezed the living space of local small and medium - sized enterprises, leading to strong protests from the US manufacturing industry and labor unions.

B. In the EU In 2024, around 4.6 billion low - value packages (90% from China) poured into the EU market. This not only created unfair competition for local enterprises but also raised concerns about safety and environmental issues. As a result, the EU plans to abolish the duty - free policy for packages worth less than 150 euros and strengthen security inspections and tax supervision.

However, the duty - free policy for small packages is not without its positive aspects. It has spurred the rapid development of cross - border e - commerce, enriched the variety of imported goods, and, more importantly, significantly increased other taxes such as VAT and income tax generated from e - commerce platform transactions, logistics, and warehousing services. It has also promoted the upgrading of the local supporting industrial structure.

III. The Hurdles of Levying Low - value Package Taxes

A. Overwhelming Quantity The sheer volume of low - value packages poses a huge challenge to customs resources. In 2024, the US imported 1.36 billion low - value packages. With such a vast number, it is nearly impossible for customs to conduct strict inspections and levy taxes on each package given limited human resources, materials, and time.

B. Incomplete or False Declarations Some senders or recipients deliberately underreport, conceal information such as package value, quantity, and category, or provide false recipient information to avoid taxes. Customs has difficulty verifying the authenticity of the vast amount of declaration information for each package within limited time and resources, resulting in tax losses.

C. Complex Logistics and Limited Sampling In reality, packages enter the country through various logistics methods and multiple transfers. It is extremely difficult for staff to accurately track the logistics chain, and customs officers cannot conduct comprehensive sampling inspections for every batch.

D. High Tax Collection Costs Levying taxes on low - value packages requires a significant investment of human resources for package inspection, value assessment, tax calculation, and collection. For low - value and high - volume packages, the administrative costs may be equal to or even higher than the tax revenue collected. This means that not only is the tax revenue meager, but it also dampens the development of the domestic cross - border e - commerce industry.

IV. The Resistance to the Cancellation of the T86 Policy

A. From the Perspective of US Customs US customs has limited human, material, technological, and resource capabilities. Imposing a large amount of additional work without increasing the budget or upgrading the system while expecting high - quality performance is a tall order. Customs is responsible for not only clearing low - value packages but also overseeing high - value goods and prohibited items. Thus, without a more efficient approach, their enthusiasm for tax collection remains low.

B. From the Perspective of Local Residents Canceling the T86 policy would lead to price hikes for imported goods. Consumers would have to pay more for the same products, increasing their consumption costs. This could further exacerbate inflation in the US, leading to public dissatisfaction and potential negative public opinion. Moreover, the domestic supply chain in the US often fails to meet the cost - effectiveness requirements of the public for daily consumer goods.

C. From the Perspective of Cross - border E - commerce Platforms

1. Amazon The direct - mail model has been severely hit. Many sellers who originally used this model may be forced to switch to FBA. Low - price - point sellers will see their profit margins squeezed and operating costs soar, potentially driving them out of the market and shrinking Amazon's business scale.
2. Temu and Shein Their US markets will be affected. These platforms will likely shift towards the overseas warehouse model and cooperate with more local suppliers to increase product localization and reduce the risk of trade frictions. They may also adjust their low - price, fast - selling models, pass on tax costs to consumers, and increase the proportion of high - price - point products, which could potentially reduce their platform competitiveness.
3. AliExpress A large number of Chinese sellers on the platform mainly rely on direct - shipped low - value packages. Canceling the T86 policy would significantly increase logistics and customs clearance costs, and also affect logistics efficiency, prolonging the customs clearance time. Some low - profit products may lose their market share.
4. Shopify Sellers using Shopify to build independent websites need to handle logistics and customs clearance on their own. Lacking the resources and advantages of large platforms, they will face rising customs clearance and logistics costs, increased operational difficulties, and may even face operational stagnation if their main products have low added value and price competitiveness.

D. From the Perspective of International Trade Image The stability and openness of the US trade policy will be questioned by other countries. If canceling the T86 policy is regarded as a trade protectionist measure, it will undoubtedly intensify trade frictions between the US and other countries, trigger trade retaliation, and damage trade relations. In today's era of economic and trade globalization, a stable international trade environment is crucial for a country's economic development. China and the US cannot and will not decouple; cooperation is the key to mutual success.

V. Final Thoughts Although the restoration of the T86 policy is a relief, Trump has indicated that the decision to continue or cancel the T86 policy will depend on "establishing a sufficient system to comprehensively and promptly handle tariff revenues". This shows that the US has not given up its targeting of Chinese cross - border e - commerce. Chinese cross - border sellers should not let their guard down. Instead, they should focus more on brand building and enhancing the core competitiveness of their products. By increasing brand awareness and product value, they can improve their risk resistance and profit margins to cope with the pressure of rising costs.

In conclusion, the US cross - border e - commerce market in 2025 is filled with challenges and opportunities. Sellers need to closely monitor policy changes, adapt their strategies in a timely manner, and strive to build sustainable business models in this ever - changing environment.