About whether to pay social security: Three weeks have passed, and the group chat for delivery riders is quiet

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2025-03-15

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  The core value of a product manager is the ability to accurately identify and meet user needs, translate user needs into product features, coordinate resources to drive implementation, and create business value

Recently, platforms such as Meituan and JD.com announced that they will pay social security for riders, sparking widespread discussions. However, three weeks later, the discussion in the rider group gradually fell silent. Behind this is the complex mentality of riders towards social security policies, or are there many practical difficulties faced within the industry?

The news that platforms have announced their intention to pay social security for riders has been fermenting for nearly three weeks. At the beginning, there was not much discussion in Sun Qiang's rider group, and it quickly fell silent.

Now, riders in the group no longer mention social security issues, but rather share more on how to handle system bugs and receive orders, and seek advice on how to obtain delivery fees from secondary delivery. In their eyes, it seems that taking on more orders is the most practical.

From a rider to a city manager for many years, Sun Qiang has been in contact with the rider industry since its inception and has worked on multiple platforms. He is known by some riders as the person who knows the platform best. He also understands the riders, "Now everyone only cares about whether the money in their pockets is small

Perhaps it's some kind of cycle, social security is back. According to Sun Qiang, when Meituan first went online, it was all self delivered by merchants, and the platform did not have a delivery team. Later, it gradually built its own team in Beijing, and paying social security for riders was standard.

With the rapid expansion of personnel, the platform is beginning to make changes. When Sun Qiang took over the direct sales team of Meituan at a site in Beijing in 2017, one of his main tasks was to withdraw social security.

By taking on these three challenges, product managers will only continue to appreciate their value

Good product managers are scarce. Product managers who understand users, business and data are still in demand when they go out of the Internet. On the contrary, if a product manager only engages in simple communication, inefficient execution, and shallow thinking, they may not be able to survive the flood of the next 3-5 years.

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It's hard to say, wait and see, "many riders say to Zhiwei. Riders have complex emotions towards the platform. On the one hand, the other party provides extremely low threshold jobs, and on the other hand, they are racing under increasingly sophisticated system planning, and disputes between people and the system often occur.

Liu Bo (pseudonym) increasingly realized that he couldn't calculate his income for each order, whether the merchant was facing the street or the commercial district, how congested the delivery route was, the number of floors in the customer's address, whether the elevator or the stairs, and the delivery fee received by each order rider were all different.

Liu Bo once tested orders from the same merchant, in the same community but on different floors, and found that there was a difference of a few cents in between. Being in it, no one can understand the specific price system. The advantage is that it seems more scientific, but the lack of cognition also makes some people feel insecure. They found that the income gap between peers is becoming smaller and more even.

Zhiwei learned that Meituan Research's project of paying social security for riders is the responsibility of the local life finance department. Starting from 2024, the research plan will be conducted in multiple cities, and a preliminary pilot plan has been formed under the guidance of relevant departments. In July 2022, seven provinces and cities including Beijing, Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Guangdong launched a pilot program for occupational injury protection for employees in new business formats. Meituan was one of the first food delivery platforms to participate in the pilot program.

The main direction and guidance for a series of activities on the platform come from Document No. 56 issued by the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security in July 2021. The document distinguishes between the nature of employment for workers in new forms of employment and corresponding safeguard measures: in addition to "where the establishment of a labor relationship is met, the enterprise shall enter into a labor contract with the worker in accordance with the law" and "where individuals rely on the platform to independently carry out business activities, engage in freelance work, etc., and adjust the rights and obligations of both parties in accordance with civil law", the statement "not fully in line with the establishment of a labor relationship" is introduced.

In short, in the past, workers were either in a labor relationship and signed contracts with their employer, or in a civil relationship and were self-employed. The new wording in Document No. 56 means that China has added a third form of labor, which includes examples such as food delivery riders, ride hailing drivers, and online hosts.

The main regulatory measures of government departments are to guide enterprises and workers to enter into written agreements and reasonably determine the rights and obligations of enterprises and workers. Although named "Guidance", the document clearly stipulates multiple measures to protect labor rights and interests, including fair employment system, minimum wage and payment guarantee system, rest and labor quota system, labor safety and health responsibility system, social insurance system, collective bargaining and appeal system, etc. These systems constitute the basis and scale of "Guidance".

It is not easy for the platform to truly implement the social security plan. On the one hand, the research needs to coordinate with multiple government departments, including the Human Resources and Social Security Bureau, Medical Security Bureau, Taxation Bureau, Housing Provident Fund Management Department, Labor Supervision Department, as well as relevant local departments. The platform's internal human resources, finance, legal and other departments need to coordinate and cooperate, and relevant systems need to be developed technically.

On the other hand, for riders, their social security benefits may vary depending on their identity. JD.com announced that it will start paying social security for full-time riders in March, while Meituan will gradually pay social security for full-time and stable part-time riders in the second quarter of this year.

Taking Meituan as an example, different types of riders mean different coverage areas, priority of dispatching, and income. Unlike the traditional external perception of specialized delivery and crowdsourcing riders, with the development of its business, Meituan is now mainly divided into specialized delivery, smooth running, happy running, crowdsourcing, and so on.

Generally speaking, specialized delivery riders cover a range of three to four kilometers around some brand merchants, with dedicated stations and strict organizational management. Le Run is a type of delivery service that falls between the two categories, in response to the lack of dedicated delivery capacity and the loose organization of crowdsourcing that makes it difficult to deploy. Le Run riders need to ensure online availability and high order acceptance rates during the lunch and evening rush hours, but their salary is settled on a weekly basis, which is somewhat similar to the system of dedicated delivery in crowdsourcing.

As for Changpao, Sun Qiang believes that the emergence of this type is related to the promotion of Pinduofan. As of August 2024, 120 million users have used Pinduofan, nearly a quarter of Meituan's food delivery users. In the order consolidation mode, orders placed by the same merchant with similar addresses will be assigned to Changpao riders, allowing riders to complete 2-3 times the order volume of ordinary riders in the same time. The unit price of Changpao riders is fixed, but the order volume is high.

In Meituan's order sorting system, priority is given to delivery riders for specialized orders, smooth delivery riders for fast delivery orders, followed by LeRun riders, and finally crowdsourced riders. In the entire system, Changpao's relatively low unit price but high priority in dispatching has made it a "catfish" for other types of riders besides specialized delivery.

Ordinary crowdsourcing is the most relaxed part of the riders, who can refuse orders, have free working hours, and do not need to wear uniform.

In Sun Qiang's eyes, Le Run and Chang Run are both upgraded versions of crowdsourcing, and still belong to crowdsourcing in terms of platform management. Because all types of riders, except for those who receive monthly wages, are settled on a weekly or daily basis, which is the core of what riders call 'freedom'. Except for specialized delivery, there are no offline stations for other types of riders, and they contact third-party delivery companies online. At most, the "team leader" holds a meeting once a week.

Sun Qiang had doubts about the "stable part-time jobs" mentioned in the announcement. Since I am working part-time, how can I be stable? Is it calculated based on working hours? Or is it the settlement method? In Sun Qiang's opinion, except for monthly delivery riders, other types of riders are difficult to classify as stable part-time workers according to this classification.

Zhiwei also consulted with Meituan officials regarding this matter, and they stated that there will be further official announcements in the future.

A person close to Meituan speculates that if eligible riders are forced to pay social security by default in the future, the platform may screen eligible riders based on a combination of rider days and odd numbers. However, there may be riders who do not want to pay social security and intentionally do not meet the required number of days, leaving time to take orders on other platforms.

In addition to uncertain classification, riders are more concerned about cost issues. Paying social security seems like a good thing, but for riders born in the gig economy, they need to weigh whether paying social security is "cost-effective".

In China, social insurance (referred to as "social security") mainly includes pension insurance, medical insurance, unemployment insurance, work-related injury insurance, and maternity insurance. The payment method and proportion of social security vary by region, but the overall principle is that enterprises and individuals share the responsibility. Taking Beijing as an example, if calculated based on the lower limit of the social security contribution base for enterprise employees in Beijing in 2024, individual riders need to pay 716 yuan per month, while in Shanghai, it is even higher at 775 yuan.

Our country's social security system integrates the five insurances, and pension insurance is one of the major components of the five insurances. It is also a long-term "investment". To receive a monthly pension after retirement, social security contributions must be made for at least 15 years. Sun Qiang mentioned that his familiar riders are not interested in this long "check", but their needs for medical and work-related injury insurance are more urgent.

As for unemployment insurance, it seems somewhat awkward in this new type of gig labor.

Lu Ming, a member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, vice chairman of the Shanghai Municipal Committee of the China Democratic Construction Association, and specially appointed professor at the Antai School of Economics and Management of Shanghai Jiao Tong University, also found in his research on riders that many respondents prefer to receive more cash, and riders have doubts about cross period decisions such as pensions.

Some people are in a hurry to use money, some are saving money for short-term entrepreneurship, and some are trying to repay their debts. Their demand for cash income is greater than their demand for social security, "Lu Ming said to Zhiwei.

Lu Ming believes that for this new form of employment, there needs to be a new system design for social security contributions, and an option for eligible riders to independently choose whether to pay social security. At the same time, it is also necessary for society and enterprises to help riders understand the social security system, provide sufficient information and explanations about the value of social security, and believe that individuals will make the most beneficial choices for themselves.

Last year, a paper surveyed 105 food delivery riders in Guangzhou, and 71.4% of them expressed that they would not be willing to participate in pension insurance under non mandatory conditions, holding the belief that "social insurance is useless". This shows that the popularization of social security related knowledge is still insufficient in the flexible employment group.

In addition, Lu Ming believes that a flexible payment model for insurance types can be explored, no longer confined to the mandatory requirement of integrating the five insurances.

Of course, the platform is also concerned about cost issues.

The delivery business of the platform has not been profitable all along. Taking Meituan as an example, it incurred a loss of 0.64 yuan per order in the first half of 2024 and 0.41 yuan per order in 2023. With the intensification of local life competition, the loss is increasing.

According to data from Meituan Research Institute in 2023, Meituan received 7.45 million orders from riders, with 11% of the total number of riders receiving orders for more than 260 days a year, or approximately 819500 people. Of course, it cannot be determined that this is the number of riders who receive special delivery, but if we calculate based on the fact that all Meituan special delivery riders are covered by social security, there may be at least a sudden increase of hundreds of thousands of insured people.

According to a Goldman Sachs report obtained by Zhiwei on February 20th, it is expected that the incremental cost of Meituan's social security in the first year will be 0.1-0.2 yuan per order, which is at a controllable level. If you want to better understand the increase in Meituan's annual expenses, you can refer to the number of instant delivery orders in the first three quarters of 2024, which is 18.7 billion orders.

However, for platforms, simply looking at the expenses of delivery services is not objective, because it is precisely because of a large and efficient delivery team that merchants can wholeheartedly join the platform and pay commissions and marketing expenses.

So, will this social security expenditure platform be transferred to other places?

Professor Lu Ming believes that whether the cost of social security will be passed on to consumers theoretically depends on whether the market competition in the industry allows companies to still have profit margins and thus be able to bear this part of the cost. If the market is fully competitive and there is excessive profit pressure on enterprises, this expenditure may be converted into delivery prices for consumers.

It is currently unclear whether the government will provide some degree of subsidies to companies that pay social security through tax incentives and other means in the face of this new type of labor relationship for riders.

Sun Qiang believes that the platform may adjust the income of certain orders through algorithms, thereby invisibly reducing the income of top riders, but it can ensure that the overall income of most riders does not change significantly. For example, long-distance orders currently have the highest unit price, but it can reduce the marginal revenue of such orders and have little impact on the rider's physical experience

In addition, even for delivery riders, Meituan does not directly manage and control them, but is managed and recruited by third-party labor platforms, including paying salaries. Sun Qiang believes that the possibility of third-party platforms sharing social security costs is not high. He mentioned that the settlement method for third-party companies that provide dedicated delivery riders for themselves on food delivery platforms is not linked to the delivery fee paid by the merchant, but rather a head fee plus cash rewards. If the performance meets certain requirements, additional rewards will be obtained.

The city where Sun Qiang is located has a dedicated delivery rider station managed by a third-party company, with a daily head fee of 30 yuan per person (settlement will be made after meeting the delivery platform's requirement of 30 orders, and no fees will be charged for orders below 30). However, for orders exceeding 30, the delivery platform will not pay any additional fees. That is to say, third-party companies do not have the motivation to work harder, and they are at a disadvantage in the game with food delivery platforms. Sun Qiang mentioned that the head fee of a certain agent in the city decreased by 20 cents in early 2025.

In this industry, both Quhuo, a listed company, and Borjie, which failed to go public last year, are among the top companies in the industry, but their profits are far lower than those of third-party labor companies in other industries.

According to Borje's prospectus, the company ranked first in the field of non-traditional labor platforms in 2022, with a market share of 13.2%. Borje mainly earns profits through two major businesses, one is to provide comprehensive solutions for non-traditional labor management, and the other is operational business.

As of December 31, 2023, the company's three annual revenues were approximately RMB 987 million, RMB 1.022 billion, and RMB 948 million, respectively. However, the cost of revenue accounts for over 85% of the total revenue. This includes fees such as rider commissions and accident compensation reserves. Among them, the proportion of rider commissions is the heaviest, consistently above 70% for three consecutive years, and increasing year by year. The gross profit margin of Borje's standard business in 2023 is only 3.2%, far lower than the overall gross profit margin of 12.7% during the same period.

According to the prospectus, customer A has been cooperating with Borjie since 2020. Borjie provides self operated local services to customer A, and customer A pays Borjie a standard service fee. Customer A contributes nearly 90% of Borjie's revenue.

People close to Meituan said that customer A is Meituan.

As a competitor, Quhuo's overall gross profit margin for 2023 is only 4.5%. Quhuo, which went public in 2020 under the name of a labor operation solution platform, has begun exploring the transformation of new energy vehicle exports and accommodation solutions.

In Sun Qiang's view, sharing social security expenses with third-party labor operation platforms is difficult due to the platform's meager profits, low bargaining power, and being firmly constrained by food delivery platforms.

In addition, Liu Bo and his colleagues are also concerned that the current system of social security will shift with the city of work, and riders who change cities and regions will have to close their old accounts and reopen new accounts. Moreover, the amount paid by the original workplace enterprise for employees cannot be fully taken away, which is also a loss for riders who may frequently change cities. This fundamentally contradicts the characteristics of the flexible employment group.

Lu Ming expressed to Zhiwei that he believes implementing social security integration is a solution that can simplify cross regional transfer procedures and achieve seamless connection of social security rights and interests.

However, the idea of integrating social security still faces obstacles in implementation. When social security wants to be integrated, there is a phenomenon of local game, where some places will have social security surplus while others will have deficit, which will create contradictions.

According to data from the Ministry of Finance and local finance bureaus, in recent years, first - and second tier cities such as Beijing, Tianjin, and Suzhou have experienced temporary deficits in residents' medical insurance funds due to high medical expenses, improved treatment, and aging pressure, but there is a surplus in pension funds; Due to imbalanced population structure and loss of insurance coverage, there has been a long-term gap in pension insurance funds in Liaoning, Heilongjiang and other regions.

Of course, once integration can be completed, the benefits are obvious: the ability to coordinate and coordinate the flow of funds.

Lu Ming said to Zhiwei, "In some big cities with a serious aging population, why is the pension surplus? It is because a large number of migrant workers have paid social security, and a part of it is used to subsidize the pension deficit in their hometowns. This is also the necessity of social security integration

At the same time, the gig economy group often works in multiple cities, and the final calculation of pension is also a difficult point. The complexity here lies in the calculation method of the national pooling part. How to balance efficiency and balance while ensuring basic fairness?

The basic pension obtained by insured persons from different regions and income levels through the pooling account after retirement is not calculated entirely based on the amount of contributions, but is based on a certain proportion of the local average wage. However, riders have their own unique characteristics.

For example, a rider's main payment point is in a more developed city, and they may have a higher base of social security contributions in the future, making a greater contribution to social security; another person has paid in three or four cities across the country, but their payment points are all in lower income areas, making them seem more like people from underdeveloped areas. So, when these two people receive social security, should the overall part be balanced in addition to the difference in personal payment? This may also need to be discussed and designed, "Lu Ming said to Zhiwei.

In addition, the integration of national information is also a problem that must be considered in advance, which is the foundation of social security integration.

Although there are still many unresolved issues, both Sun Qiang and Liu Bo believe that compared to many years in the past, the launch of social security payment schemes for riders by several platforms in February is a huge progress.

After all, since the release of 56 documents in 2021, nearly four years have passed, and riders or a portion of riders are finally about to receive protection and a safety net from the social security system. Over 200 million gig economy workers are gradually being seen.

Author: Rick Design: Confucius Editor: Da Bing

This article is written by everyone who is a product manager [Zhiwei]. WeChat official account: [Zhiwei]. It is original/authorized to be published by everyone who is a product manager. Reproduction without permission is prohibited.

The title image is from Unsplash, based on the CC0 protocol.

关于要不要交社保：三周过去了，外卖骑手的群里静悄悄

知危关注

2025-03-15

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前段时间，美团、京东等平台相继宣布将为骑手缴纳社保，引发了广泛讨论。然而，三周过去，骑手群里的讨论却逐渐归于沉寂。这背后，是骑手们对社保政策的复杂心态，还是行业内部面临的诸多现实困境？

平台们相继宣布要为骑手缴纳社保的新闻已经发酵近三周，孙强的骑手群里讨论声一开始就不多，并且迅速归于沉寂。

现在，骑手们在群里已经不提社保的事，分享的更多的是如何卡系统的 BUG 接好单，讨教怎么从二次配送里获得配送费。在他们眼里，似乎多接几单最实在。

从骑手做到多年的城市经理，孙强在骑手这个行业诞生起就与之接触，并在多个平台工作过，他被一些骑手称为最了解平台的人。他同样了解骑手，“ 现在大家只关心到兜里的钱有没有少。”

或许是某种循环，社保又回来了。据孙强所说，美团最早刚上线的时候全部是商家自配送，平台并没有配送团队，后来在北京逐渐搭建自己的团队，为骑手缴纳社保是标配。

随着人员规模迅速扩大，平台开始做出改变。孙强 2017 年去北京某站点接替美团直营团队时，其中主要的工作之一就是撤社保。

做到这三点挑战，产品经理只会不断升值

好的产品经理是很稀缺的，懂用户、懂商业、懂数据的产品经理走出互联网，依然是抢手货。相反，如果只做简单传话、低效执行、浅层思考的产品经理，恐怕走不过未来3-5年的洪流。

查看详情 >

“ 不好说，观望。” 很多骑手这么对知危说到。骑手对平台心情复杂，一方面对方提供了门槛极低的工作，另一方面他们又在越来越精密的系统规划下飞驰，人和系统的纠纷时有发生。

刘波（ 化名 ）越来越发现自己没有办法算清自己每单的收入了，商家是临街还是商圈，送餐路线的拥堵程度如何，顾客地址的楼层数，电梯还是楼梯，每个单子骑手获得的配送费都不一样。

刘波曾测试过跑同一商家，同一小区但不同楼层的单，发现中间差了几毛钱。身在其中，没有人能了解具体的价格体系。好处是似乎更加科学了，但缺乏认知也让一些人有不安全感。他们发现，同伴之间收入差距越来越小，越来越平均。

知危获悉，美团研究为骑手缴纳社保的项目由本地生活财务线负责，从 2024 年开始研究方案，在多个城市进行调研，并在有关部门指导下已经形成了初步试点方案。而在更早的 2022 年 7 月，北京、上海、江苏、广东等 7 省市启动了新业态从业人员职业伤害保障试点，美团是首批参与试点的外卖平台。

平台一系列活动的主要方向和指导来自于人力资源与社会保障部在 2021 年 7 月发布的 56 号文件。文件就新就业形态劳动者的从业性质及相应的保障措施作了区分：在 “ 符合确立劳动关系情形的，企业应当依法与劳动者订立劳动合同 ”、“ 个人依托平台自主开展经营活动、从事自由职业等，按照民事法律调整双方的权利义务 ” 二者之外，引入了 “ 不完全符合确立劳动关系情形 ” 的表述。

简而言之，过去劳动者要么属于劳动关系与单位签合同，要么属于民事关系，是个体户。56 号文件的新表述意味着我国增加了第三种劳动形态，文件里举例包含了外卖骑手、网约车司机、网络主播等。

政府部门的主要规范措施是 “ 指导企业与劳动者订立书面协议，合理确定企业与劳动者的权利义务 ”。虽然名为 “ 指导 ”，文件明确规定了多项劳动权益保障措施，包括公平就业制度、最低工资和支付保障制度、休息和劳动定额制度、劳动安全卫生责任制度、社会保险制度、集体协商和申诉制度等，这些制度构成了 “ 指导 ” 的依据和尺度。

对于平台来说，将社保方案真正落实并不容易。一方面，调研要对接协调多方政府部门，包括人力资源和社会保障局、医疗保障局、税务局、住房公积金管理部门、劳动监察部门等，还有各地方相关部门，平台内部人力、财务、法务等部门需要协调配合，并且技术上要开发相关的系统。

另一方面，对于骑手来说，身份不同，未来在社保方面获得的待遇可能也不同。京东宣布将在 3 月开始给全职骑手缴纳社保，美团将在今年第二季度逐步为全职及稳定兼职骑手缴纳社保。

以美团为例，不同类型骑手意味着覆盖范围，派单优先级，收入的不同。和传统外界认知的专送、众包骑手二分不同，随着业务发展，美团现在主要分为专送、畅跑、乐跑、众包等。

一般来说，专送骑手覆盖了一些品牌商家周边三到四公里范围，有专门的站点，组织管理较为严格。乐跑则是为了应对 “ 专送运力不足、众包组织又过于松散无法更好调派 ” 而产生的介于二者之间的类型，乐跑骑手要在午晚高峰保证在线和高接单率，但工资周结，制度上有点像众包里的专送。

至于畅跑，孙强认为这个类型的出现与拼好饭的推广相关。截至 2024 年 8 月，已有 1.2 亿用户使用过拼好饭，接近美团外卖用户的四分之一。在拼单模式下，同一商家下单、地址相近的顺路订单会派给畅跑骑手，使骑手在相同时间内完成普通骑手 2-3 倍订单量，畅跑骑手单价固定，但单量多。

在美团的订单分流体系中，专送订单优先专送骑手，快送订单优先畅跑，其次为乐跑骑手，最后则是众包骑手。在整个体系中，畅跑单价相对较低但派单优先级高的特点，使其成为了除专送外其他类型骑手的“鲶鱼”。

普通众包则是最为松散的一部分骑手，他们可以拒绝接单，工作时间自由，也不需要统一的着装。

在孙强眼里，乐跑和畅跑都属于众包的升级版，在平台管理力上依旧属于众包。因为除了专送骑手工资月结之外，其他所有类型的骑手都是周结算或者日结算，这是骑手们口中 “ 自由 ” 的核心。除专送之外，其他类型骑手都没有线下站点，与第三方配送公司线上联系，最多每周由 “ 队长 ” 开一次会。

孙强对公告中的 “ 稳定兼职 ” 产生了疑惑。既然兼职了，如何稳定？是按工时来算？还是结算方式？在孙强看来，除了月结的专送骑手，其他类型骑手很难按照此分类归入稳定兼职。

知危也就此咨询了美团官方，对方表示后续会有官方进一步公告。

一位接近美团的人士猜测，如果未来默认符合条件的骑手强制缴纳社保，平台可能会以骑手天数和单数的综合考量筛选符合条件的骑手，但可能会出现有的骑手不想缴纳社保，从而故意不跑够天数标准，剩下时间去其他平台接单的情况。

除了分类不确定，骑手更担心的是成本问题，交社保似乎是好事，但对于诞生于零工经济的骑手来说，他们需要掂量一下缴纳社保是否 “ 划算 ”。

在中国，社会保险（ 简称 “ 社保 ” ）主要包括养老保险、医疗保险、失业保险、工伤保险和生育保险。社保的缴纳方式和比例因地区而异，但总体原则是企业和个人共同承担。以北京为例，如按 2024 年北京企业职工社保缴费基数下限计算，每月骑手个人需缴纳 716 元，上海则更多，为 775 元。

我国社保体系为五险合一，养老保险是五险中的大头之一，也是一个长期“投资”，要想退休后按月领取养老金，社保至少要缴纳 15 年。孙强提到自己相熟的骑手对于这漫长的 “ 支票 ” 并不感兴趣，但对医疗和工伤保险的需求更迫切。

至于失业保险，似乎在这样的新型零工劳动下就显得有些尴尬了。

全国政协委员、民建上海市委会副主委、上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院特聘教授陆铭对骑手的调研同样发现，很多调研对象更希望到手的现金更多，骑手对于养老金这样的跨期决策存在疑虑。

“ 有人急着用钱，有人短期攒钱创业，还有人为了还债，他们对现金收入的需求大于对社保的需求。” 陆铭这样对知危说到。

陆铭认为对于这种新型就业形态的社保缴纳，需要有新的制度设计，并且增加由符合条件的骑手自主选择交不交社保的选项。同时也需要社会和企业帮助骑手了解社保制度，给予有关社保价值的充分的信息解释，相信个人会做出对自己最有利的选择。

去年的一份论文曾调研了 105 位广州外卖骑手，其中 71.4% 的骑手表示，如果在非强制条件下将不愿意参加养老保险，他们抱持 “ 社会保险无用论 ”，由此可见对于社保相关知识的普及在灵活用工群体仍有不足。

另外，陆铭认为还可以探索灵活缴纳险种的模式，不再拘泥于五险合一的强制规定。

当然，平台也在担心成本问题。

一直以来平台的配送业务并不赚钱，以美团为例，2024 年上半年每单亏损 0.64 元，2023 年每单亏损 0.41 元，随着本地生活竞争加剧，亏损在上升。

根据美团研究院 2023 年的数据，美团 745 万有接单收入骑手中，全年接单在 260 天以上的占总人数的 11%，约 81.95 万人。当然无法认定这就是专送骑手的数量，但如果按照美团专送全部上社保来算，可能至少会骤然多出几十万上保人数。

知危在 2 月 20 日获得的一份高盛报告中显示，其预计美团第一年的社保增量成本为每单 0.1 – 0.2 元人民币，成本处于可控水平。如果想更好理解美团全年支出的增加情况，可以参考 2024 年美团前三季度即时配送订单数，数字是 187 亿单。

不过对于平台来说，单纯的看配送业务的支出并不客观，因为正是有庞大高效的配送团队，才有了商家心无旁骛地入驻平台并缴纳佣金和营销费用。

那么，这笔社保支出平台会不会转嫁到其他地方？

陆铭教授认为社保成本是否会转嫁到消费者，理论上取决于该行业的市场竞争是否让企业还有利润空间，从而能够负担这部分成本。如果市场充分竞争，企业利润压力过大，这部分支出可能会转化到消费者的配送价格上。

目前尚不明确面对骑手这样新型的劳动关系，政府是否会通过税收优惠等其他方式对缴纳社保的企业进行某种程度上的补贴。

孙强认为，平台可能通过算法调节某些单子的收入，从而隐形的降低头部骑手的收入，但是可以保证大多数骑手整体收入变化不大。“ 比如远距离单子现在单价最高，但是可以降低这种单子的边际收入，对于骑手的体感影响不大。”

另外，即使是专送骑手，美团也并非全部直接管理和控制，而由第三方劳务平台代为管理和招聘，包括支付薪酬。孙强认为第三方平台共担社保费用的可能性并不大。他提到，外卖平台给为自己提供专送骑手的第三方公司的结算方式并不与商家付出的配送费挂钩，而是人头费＋现金奖励，如果履约达到一定要求，则会获得额外奖励。

孙强所在的城市，由第三方公司管理的专送骑手站点每人每天人头费为 30 元（ 达到外卖平台要求人效 30 单后结算，低于 30 单无费用 ），但是骑手超过三十单的单数，外卖平台并不会额外支付费用。也就是说第三方公司并没有多劳多得的动力，并且其在和外卖平台的博弈中处于劣势，孙强提到该城市某代理商的人头费在 2025 年初又降了 2 毛钱。

在这个行业中，上市公司趣活和去年上市未果的博尔捷都属于行业头部，但它们的利润远低于其他行业的劳务三方公司。

根据博尔捷的招股书显示，公司 2022 年在非传统用工平台领域排名第一，所占市场份额为 13.2%，博尔捷的主要靠两大业务赚取盈利，一个是提供非传统劳动力管理的全面解决方案，另一个则是运营方面的业务。

截至 2023 年 12 月 31 日，公司 3 个年度收入分别约为人民币 9.87 亿、10.22 亿及 9.48 亿。但是收入成本占到了收入的 85% 以上。这其中包含了骑手的佣金以及事故赔偿准备金等费用。其中，骑手佣金占比最重，连续三年都在 70% 以上，并且一年比一年重。博尔捷 2023 年标配业务的毛利率仅为 3.2%，远低于同期的整体毛利率 12.7% 。

招股书显示，客户 A 从 2020 年开始就已经开始和博尔捷合作，博尔捷为客户 A 提供自营本地服务，而客户 A 则按标准给博尔捷服务费，客户 A 对博尔捷营收占比贡献接近九成。

接近美团的人士表示，A 客户即美团。

作为竞争对手的趣活 2023 年的整体毛利率仅为 4.5%。2020 年以劳动力运营解决方案平台为名上市的趣活，已经开始探索转型新能源汽车出口和住宿解决方案。

在孙强看来，与第三方劳动力运营平台共担社保支出难在平台盈利微薄，他们议价能力低，牢牢被外卖平台牵制。

另外，刘波们还担心目前的制度社保跟着工作城市转移，骑手换城市跨地区要关闭旧帐户，重开新账户，并且原工作地企业为职工缴纳的金额并不能全额带走，对于可能会经常换城市的骑手也是一种损失。这本质上和灵活就业群体的特性相违背。

陆铭向知危表示，他认为推行社保一体化是一个解决之道，可以简化跨地区转移手续，实现社保权益的无缝衔接。

但，关于社保一体化的构想，实现起来依旧面临阻力。因为社保想要一体化时，存在地方博弈的现象，有的地方会有社保盈余，有些地方则会出现赤字，这会产生矛盾。

根据财政部和各地财政局数据，例如北京、天津、苏州等一二线城市近年因医疗支出高、待遇提升及老龄化压力，居民医保基金出现阶段性赤字，但养老资金存在盈余；辽宁、黑龙江等地因人口结构失衡、参保流失等问题，养老保险资金长期存在缺口。

当然，一旦一体化能完成，好处就是显而易见的：能够统筹协调资金流动。

陆铭对知危说到：“ 像一些大城市，人口老龄化严重，养老金为什么是盈余的？是因为大量外来劳动力缴纳了社保，那其中有一部分用来补贴外来人口老家的养老亏空，是非常合理的事情，这也是社保一体化的必要性所在。”

同时，零工经济群体往往在会多个城市工作，养老金的最终计算也是一个难点，这里的复杂性在于国家统筹部分的计算方式，如何在保障基本公平前提下，兼顾效率和趋于平衡？

不同地区、不同收入水平的参保人，在退休后通过统筹账户获得的基础养老金，并非完全按缴费金额计算，而是基于当地社会平均工资的一定比例。但，骑手是有特殊性的。

“ 例如一个骑手主要缴纳点是在较发达城市，未来可能缴纳社保的基数较高，为社保贡献更大；另一个人在全国缴纳了三四个城市，但他缴纳之处都是收入比较低的地方，他似乎更像一个欠发达地区的人。那么这两个人在获得社保的时候，除了个人缴纳的部分本应有差异之外，统筹的部分应该拉平吗？这里面可能也需要讨论和设计。” 陆铭向知危表示道。

另外，全国信息的打通也是一定要提前考虑的问题，这也是社保一体化的基础。

虽然有很多事情还没有解决，但现在，孙强和刘波都认为，和过去多年相比，2月份几个平台相继推出为骑手缴纳社保的方案已经是一个巨大的进步。

毕竟，从 2021 年 56 条文件发布，将近 4 个年头，骑手或者说一部分骑手，终于即将获得社保制度上的保护和兜底，超过两亿的零工经济群体，被逐渐看到。

撰文：Rick 设计：子曰 编辑：大饼

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