Global stablecoin battle: Continuation of US dollar hegemony vs breakthrough of RMB
Global stablecoin battle: Continuation of US dollar hegemony vs breakthrough of RMB
Internet Law Review
·July 11, 2025 16:56
China is exploring the international breakthrough path of RMB stablecoin through a positive "curve".
On July 7 and 9, 2025, Shenzhen Local Financial Administration Bureau and Beijing Internet Finance Industry Association successively released risk tips, exposing the illegal fund-raising behavior and characteristics of criminals in the name of stable currency. These risk warnings do not emphasize the legality of "stablecoins", but rather indicate a recent trend of financial fraud through the guise of stablecoin sales.
At the same time, several Chinese tech giants, including Alibaba, Tencent, and JD.com, are supporting a new stablecoin plan pegged to the Chinese yuan. On July 9th, a senior executive of Ant International, headquartered in Singapore, stated that the company is "seriously considering" applying for stablecoin licenses in multiple jurisdictions worldwide.
Therefore, although stablecoins have not yet been legally accepted, as China increasingly focuses on the internationalization of the renminbi and Hong Kong becomes a Web3 experimental center, China may be preparing to explore stablecoins supported by the renminbi as a strategic balance against the dominant position of stablecoins in the United States.
1、 What is stablecoin?
Stablecoins are digital encrypted tokens whose value is tied to the value of other assets, such as the US dollar. Unlike many other cryptocurrency assets, the largest reserve backed stablecoin is issued by entities with the sole privilege of minting and destroying tokens. Whether holders can exchange tokens for reference assets depends on the issuer's reputation and in accordance with the issuer's terms. This feature sets stablecoins apart from Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies whose value fluctuates with supply and demand, making them a more popular medium of exchange and store of value.
Some stablecoins, such as Dai, are linked to real-world assets but supported by cryptocurrency assets in varying degrees of capitalized reserves to explain their relative volatility. Some stablecoins maintain their peg by algorithmic manipulation of token supply based on demand, and do not have redeemable reserve support. At present, stablecoins supported by legal tender account for about 87% of the total circulating supply, while algorithmic stablecoins account for less than 0.2%.
Stablecoins are mainly used for trading encrypted assets, goods and services, resisting local currency fluctuations, and cross-border payments. In the context of cross-border trade, stablecoins can reduce costs and accelerate transaction speeds, especially for foreign entities that have business dealings with China.
Investors are increasingly using stablecoins instead of cash to buy and sell cryptocurrency investment positions, as many exchanges make cryptocurrency trading faster and easier than real-world asset trading. According to Ark Invest's data, in 2024, the annual transaction volume of stablecoins will reach $15.6 trillion, equivalent to 119% of Visa's transaction volume and 200% of Mastercard's.
Some stablecoins themselves are investment tools, as the number of stablecoins that pay interest, although small, is constantly increasing. PayPal announced in April 2025 that it will begin offering a 3.7% interest rate to users holding its stablecoin PayPal USD in PayPal/Venmo wallets. Visa is launching a platform for banks to issue tokens, and banks have been in talks to issue their own tokens.
However, it should be noted that the investment properties of stablecoins themselves are completely different from scams that use "stablecoins" for speculation. At present, such scams mainly involve selling courses online, using stablecoins as a cover to package some worthless or low value assets into tokens, purchasing assets at low prices, and selling them to investors at high prices. Its operation mode often relies on absorbing funds from new investors to maintain operation or pay the returns of previous investors. Once the funding chain breaks or the project party runs away, investors will face a huge risk of not being able to recover their principal. These are not actually true stablecoin investments.
2、 Legalization of stablecoins: Continuation of the global hegemony of the US dollar
According to Chainalysis, the total market value of stablecoins currently in circulation exceeds 250 billion US dollars, setting a new historical high. And this growth is largely due to the popularity of stablecoins supported by the US dollar, which are also supported by the regulatory environment in the United States.
In the constantly changing technological landscape, the US dollar is currently facing pressure from multiple sources: externally, many countries are promoting alternative payment systems, such as China's digital yuan, and projects like mBridge aim to create financial corridors that surpass Western banking infrastructure; Internally, the comprehensive tariff measures implemented by the United States in early April unexpectedly led to a weakening of the US dollar after its announcement, exacerbating uncertainty about the direction of the US dollar.
The United States has chosen not to develop government issued digital dollars, making privately issued stablecoins pegged to the US dollar the main tool for demonstrating its financial influence in the digital age. Therefore, there is an urgent need to establish a clear regulatory framework to ensure effective competition of the US dollar in the new landscape. Therefore, since taking office again, Trump has consistently prioritized stablecoin legislation to maintain the dominance of the US dollar and oversee the domestic stablecoin industry.
In late January 2025, US President Donald Trump issued an executive order titled "Strengthening America's Leadership in Digital Financial Technology," prohibiting the creation of a US central bank digital currency and explicitly promoting the development of a "globally legitimate stablecoin supported by the US dollar.
At present, there is no federal regulatory framework for stablecoins in the United States, and regulatory authority falls on each state, but Congress is currently developing a framework. On June 17, 2025, the US Senate passed the GENIUS Act, aimed at regulating and promoting the adoption and use of stablecoins in the United States. The House Financial Services Committee submitted its own stablecoin proposal, the Stablecoin Transparency and Accountability for a Better Bookkeeping Economy Act 2025, in April of this year. The bill is still under review in the House of Representatives, and an important point of contention is whether and how to limit the ability of the President and other federal politicians to issue stablecoins.
However, this attempt also comes with significant risks. Currently, Tether's USDT and Circle's USDC dominate the market value of stablecoins. A crisis that forces large-scale redemptions may trigger these assets to be quickly sold into already fragile markets. Selling pressure may push up federal borrowing costs, exacerbate financial volatility, and weaken global confidence in dollar denominated assets. Both the GENIUS Act and the STANLE Act do not mandate stronger safeguards in terms of reserves, capital adequacy ratios, and disposal processes, which could potentially embed these vulnerabilities into the financial system,
3、 China's stablecoin choice
Although the United States is increasingly supporting stablecoin innovation and thus consolidating the dominant position of the US dollar in Web3, China must decide whether to stand idly by or play a more active role in the growing digital asset ecosystem. China is facing increasing calls from policy advisors and economists to explore the use of stablecoins for cross-border payments, as the United States is consolidating its dominant position in the US dollar through emerging technologies.
Since September 2021, cryptocurrency transactions have been recognized as illegal in Chinese Mainland. But on June 18, the speech of Pan Gongsheng, President of the People's Bank of China, at the Lujiazui Forum seemed to release a signal of policy change: he called for the establishment of a multipolar global monetary system, and promised to ensure the security of international transactions. Digital RMB and stable currency were proposed as viable alternatives to cross-border settlement.
China already has one of the most advanced CBDC pilot projects in the world. The enthusiasm of private enterprises such as Alibaba, Tencent, and JD.com for stablecoin applications may reflect the growing demand in the market for a mechanism to link non US dollar stablecoins.
At the end of 2024, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) launched the second phase of its electronic Hong Kong dollar pilot project, collaborating with 21 financial institutions to develop 11 use cases for its CBDC and tokenized deposits. This phase of the project has its own sandbox. Hong Kong previously played a key role in the mBridge project led by the Bank for International Settlements (BSI). The mBridge project is a multi CBDC platform jointly developed by multiple central banks for testing cross-border payments and settlements. The mBridge project reached the minimum feasible product stage in mid-2024.
On June 6, 2025, a notice was published in the Hong Kong Gazette announcing that the Hong Kong Stablecoins Ordinance would come into effect on August 1, 2025. These examples illustrate China's use of Hong Kong as a sandbox to drive innovation in industries such as fintech and Web3 under its supervision.
Economist Hong Hao from Lotus Asset Management stated that although the United States dominated early issuance, other currencies may eventually become reserve anchors as well. Stablecoins issued in Hong Kong may be more stable than those in the United States. This is because Hong Kong has clear regulations and sufficient resources.
The rise of stablecoins does not necessarily mean the establishment of a new "super sovereign" international monetary system. In fact, stablecoins are just an extension of existing regulated legal tender used to facilitate cross-border transactions. Driven by popular financial technology platforms such as Alipay, WeChat payment and China UnionPay, China's digital payment ecosystem has supported a wide range of cashless transactions in China. Integrating RMB supported stablecoins into these existing payment systems can provide a seamless pathway for the international application of RMB supported stablecoins, with a focus on cross-border trade and foreign direct investment.
In addition, stablecoins linked to the digital renminbi will provide a government supported alternative to dollar linked tokens, potentially guiding international demand towards digital assets in China. This will enhance China's leading position in the regulated digital finance field, and China will also provide clear regulation for this emerging technology in a way that is completely different from the West. With appropriate support, RMB backed stablecoins may become a strategic tool for the Chinese government's economic governance strategy.
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全球稳定币战局：美元霸权续命 vs 人民币破局
2025 年 7 月 7 日、 9 日，深圳市地方金融管理局、北京市互联网金融行业协会相继发布风险提示，揭露不法分子利以稳定币等名义实施非法集资的行为和特征。这些风险提示，并没有强调“稳定币”的合法性与否，而是说明了一种通过稳定币销售的幌子进行金融行骗的近期趋势。
与此同时，包括阿里、腾讯和京东在内的多家中国科技巨头正在支持一项新的与人民币挂钩的稳定币计划。7月9日，总部位于新加坡的蚂蚁国际的一位高管表示，该公司正在“认真考虑”在全球多个司法管辖区申请稳定币牌照。
因此，在法律上虽然尚未接受稳定币，然而随着中国日益关注人民币国际化以及香港成为 Web3 实验中心，中国可能正在准备探索人民币支持的稳定币，作为对美国稳定币主导地位的战略平衡。
一、什么是稳定币？
稳定币是一种数字加密代币，其价值与其他资产（例如美元）的价值挂钩。与许多其他加密资产不同，最大的储备支持稳定币是由拥有铸造和销毁代币唯一特权的实体发行的。持有者能否将代币兑换成参考资产取决于发行者的信誉，并按照发行者的条款进行。这一特性使稳定币有别于比特币和其他价值随供求关系波动的加密资产，使其成为更受欢迎的交换媒介和价值储存手段。
有些稳定币，比如 Dai，与现实世界资产挂钩，但由不同程度资本化储备中的加密资产支持，以解释其相对波动性。还有一些稳定币通过根据需求对代币供应进行算法操纵来维持挂钩，并且没有可赎回的储备支持。目前，由法定货币支持的稳定币约占总流通供应量的 87%，而算法稳定币占不到 0.2%。
稳定币主要用于交易加密资产、商品和服务交易、抵御本币波动以及跨境支付。在跨境贸易的背景下，稳定币可以降低成本并加快交易速度，特别是对于与中国有业务往来的外国实体而言。
投资者也正在越来越多地使用稳定币而非现金来买入和卖出加密资产投资头寸，因为许多交易所让加密资产交易比现实世界资产交易更快、更容易。根据Ark Invest 的数据， 2024 年，稳定币的年度交易总额达到 15.6 万亿美元，相当于 Visa 交易量的 119% 和万事达卡的 200%。
一些稳定币本身就是投资工具，因为支付利息的稳定币数量虽然不多，但正在不断增长。PayPal在2025年4月宣布，将开始向在 PayPal/Venmo 钱包中持有其稳定币 PayPal USD 的用户提供 3.7% 的利息。Visa 正在推出一个供银行发行代币的平台，而且各家银行一直在商谈自行发行代币。
但需要注意的是，稳定币本身的投资属性，与利用“稳定币”炒作的骗局截然不同。目前，这类骗局主要是以线上卖课的方式，通过稳定币为幌子，将一些无价值或低价值资产打包成代币方式，以低价购入资产，以高价卖给投资人。其运作模式往往依赖于吸收新投资者的资金来维持运转或支付前期投资者的收益，一旦资金链断裂或项目方跑路，投资者将面临本金无法收回的巨大风险。这些实际上并非真正的稳定币投资。
二、稳定币合法化：美元全球霸权续命
根据Chainalysis的数据，目前流通的稳定币总市值超过 2500 亿美元，创历史新高。而这一增长，很大程度上得益于美元支持的稳定币的流行，而这些稳定币本身也得到了美国监管环境的支持。
在不断变化的技术格局中，美元目前面临着来自多方面的压力：在外部，许多国家正在推行替代支付系统，例如中国的数字人民币，mBridge这样的项目则旨在创建超越西方银行基础设施的金融通道；在内部，美国4月初实施的全面关税措施出人意料地导致美元在宣布后走弱，加剧了人们对美元走势的不确定性。
美国选择不开发政府发行的数字美元，使得私人发行的、与美元挂钩的稳定币成为美国在数字时代展现金融影响力的主要工具。因此，迫切需要建立一个清晰的监管框架，以确保美元在新的格局中有效竞争。因此，特朗普再次上任以来，一直优先考虑稳定币立法，以维持美元的主导地位，并监督国内的稳定币行业。
2025年1月下旬，美国总统唐纳德•特朗普发布了题为《加强美国在数字金融技术领域的领导地位》的行政命令，禁止创建美国央行数字货币，同时明确推动发展“全球合法的美元支持的稳定币”。
美国目前尚无针对稳定币的联邦监管框架，监管权落到各州身上，但国会目前正在制定框架。2025年6月17日，美国参议院通过了《2025年美国稳定币指导和建立国家创新法案》（GENIUS法案），旨在规范和促进美国稳定币的采用和使用。众议院金融服务委员会已于今年4月将其自身的稳定币提案——《2025年稳定币透明度和问责制促进更佳账本经济法案》（STABLE法案），该法案仍在众议院审议中，其中一个重要争议点在于是否以及如何限制总统和其他联邦政客发行稳定币的能力。
然而这一尝试也伴随着巨大的风险。目前，Tether 的 USDT 和 Circle 的 USDC 占据稳定币市值的主导地位。一场迫使大规模赎回的危机可能会引发这些资产被迅速抛售到原本就脆弱的市场。抛售压力可能会、推高联邦借贷成本，加剧金融波动，并削弱全球对美元计价资产的信心。《GENIUS 法案》和《STABLE 法案》均未强制要求在储备、资本充足率和处置流程方面采取更强有力的保障措施，因此有可能将这些脆弱性嵌入金融体系，
三、中国的稳定币抉择
尽管美国日益支持稳定币创新，并因此巩固了美元在 Web3 中的主导地位，但中国必须决定，是袖手旁观，还是在日益壮大的数字资产生态系统中扮演更积极的角色。中国面临越来越多的政策顾问和经济学家的呼吁，要求探索利用稳定币用于跨境支付，因为美国正通过仍在兴起的技术巩固美元的主导地位。
自2021年9月以来，加密货币交易在中国大陆被认定为非法。但6月18日，中国人民银行行长潘功胜在陆家嘴论坛上的讲话似乎释放了政策转向的信号：他呼吁构建多极化的全球货币体系，并承诺保障国际交易安全，数字人民币和稳定币被提出作为跨境结算的可行替代方案。
中国已经拥有全球最先进的CBDC试点项目之一。阿里、腾讯和京东这些私营企业对稳定币应用的热情或许反映出，市场对替非美元稳定币挂钩机制的需求正在日益增长。
2024年末，香港金融管理局（HKMA）启动了其电子港币试点项目第二阶段，与21家金融机构合作，为其CBDC和代币化存款开发了11个用例，该项目此阶段拥有自己的沙盒。香港此前也在国际清算银行（BSI）牵头的mBridge项目中发挥了关键作用。mBridge项目是多家央行合作开发的多CBDC平台，用于测试跨境支付和结算。mBridge项目于2024年中期达到了最低可行产品阶段。
2025年6月6日香港宪报刊登公告宣布香港《稳定币条例》将于2025年8月1日生效。这些例子说明中国将香港作为沙盒，在其监督下推动金融科技和 Web3 等行业的创新。
Lotus Asset Management 的经济学家洪灏表示，尽管美国在早期发行中占据主导地位，但其他货币最终也可能成为储备锚。“香港发行的稳定币可能比美国的更稳定。”因为香港的监管清晰且资源充足。
稳定币的兴起并不意味着一个新的“超主权”国际货币体系的建立。实际上，稳定币只是现有监管下法定货币的延伸，用于促进跨境交易。在支付宝、微信支付和中国银联等热门金融科技平台的推动下，中国的数字支付生态系统已在国内支持广泛的无现金交易。将人民币支持的稳定币整合到这些现有的支付系统中，可以为人民币支持的稳定币的国际化应用提供一条无缝衔接的途径，其用例将侧重于跨境贸易和外国直接投资。
此外，与数字人民币挂钩的稳定币将提供一种由政府支持的替代美元挂钩代币的方案，从而有可能引导国际需求转向中国的数字资产。这将提升中国在受监管的数字金融领域的领先地位，中国也将以截然不同于西方的方式，为这项新兴技术提供清晰的监管。在适当的支持下，人民币支持的稳定币或许能成为中国政府经济治国方略的战略工具。
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