People who haven't bought a house for 20 years have all jumped out

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This article is from the WeChat official account: Ye Tancai, author: Yun Banjian, editor: Dan Dan, original title: "The battle that has not been seen for many years, people who have not bought houses for 20 years have been forced out", and the picture is from: Visual China

Article Summary

The real estate market is recovering, and policies are stimulating diversified consumption growth.

•      The real estate market in first tier cities is recovering, with a significant increase in transaction volume

•   ‍♀️   Guangzhou launches affordable housing to meet wage demands

•      Various regions stimulate consumption, and a wave of car replacement is emerging

December 6th, for most people, is an ordinary day, but for part-time worker Aunt Yang, it is very unusual.

She put an end to more than 20 years of hesitation and determination, and "made up her mind" to buy a two bedroom apartment in the suburbs of Shanghai for 2.1 million yuan, excited and nervous.

Excitedly, after 20 years of drifting in Shanghai, the whole family finally has their own comfortable nest and has taken root in Shanghai. The child has also settled down and become a new Shanghainese.

With this house, Aunt Yang and her husband have decided not to return to their hometown in Southwest China for retirement.

A house is not just a home, a decision, it is the dream of two generations.

Of course, Aunt Yang and her husband are also nervous.

20 years of savings are exhausted in one go, and it's difficult to withstand any unexpected changes.

She wants to work harder, look for opportunities for hourly workers, and be fully booked every hour.

This is the life of ordinary Chinese people. No matter whether they have been struggling for ten years or twenty years, many people are destined to carry on with their backs.

The shell may be heavy, but only with weight can it bring a sense of security. The heavier the weight, the more secure it is, the more secure it is in the heart. This is something that cannot be given or replaced.

Watching Aunt Yang so excited and nervous, I realized that Beijing and Shanghai, the two most difficult cities to settle in, are undergoing new changes.

With the relaxation of policies, more and more people can stay here with their own hands.

The meaning of a city is opportunity, spanning, shuttling, wandering, and searching for opportunities that belong to oneself.

Migrant workers are merging into cities from the fields of economics and sociology.

1、 Breaking the downward cycle and setting a new high in nearly 46 weeks, real estate enters a new world

Aunt Yang's breaking of the 20-year dilemma is a signal that more and more people who used to observe are breaking ground and entering the market.

Judging from the transaction volume in various regions, many "Auntie Yang" from different places have started to come out and buy houses.

On December 11th, Shenzhen Special Zone Daily reported that according to data from the Shenzhen Real Estate Intermediary Association, during the week of December 2nd to 8th, the city recorded 2390 second-hand houses (including self-service), a month on month increase of 12.6%, and the weekly volume of second-hand houses reached a new high in nearly 200 weeks.

The data from the Shenzhen Real Estate Intermediary Association is based on the time of initiation of second-hand housing purchase and sale contracts, and can be regarded as an important reference data for the final transaction volume.

Optimistic data is not limited to Shenzhen.

According to media reports such as Economic Daily and Viewpoint Real Estate, first tier cities are changing their decline one after another.

In November, the online signing volume of second-hand residential properties in Beijing was 18763, an increase of 8% month on month and 49.6% year-on-year, reaching a new high in nearly 20 months; According to data from the Shanghai Housing Management Bureau, the total number of second-hand housing transactions for the month was 27100, setting a record for the highest transaction volume in nearly 44 months; The online signing area for first-hand residential properties in Guangzhou exceeded 900000 square meters, a year-on-year increase of 53.2%. The online signing volume for second-hand residential properties exceeded 11000 units, a month on month increase of about 10%, setting a new high since April 2023; 8734 new houses were sold in pre-sale in Shenzhen, a year-on-year increase of 158.9%, and 8770 second-hand houses were recorded, a year-on-year increase of 103.7%, reaching a new high in nearly 46 months.

The real estate market in first tier cities and some second tier cities has temporarily stopped dancing on the edge of the cliff and turned around.

At present, from more macro data such as inventory levels, it is difficult to predict the future of the national real estate market, but from local transaction situations, it is already bustling.

The partial recovery is due to the persistence of policies.

On December 10th, the Economic Daily reported on the three-step policy, from ensuring the delivery of housing, to stopping the decline and stabilizing, to stabilizing the real estate and stock markets, with clear policy expectations and significant changes.

On April 30th, an important meeting emphasized the need to effectively carry out the work of guaranteeing the delivery of houses and safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of homebuyers.

On September 26th, in order to promote the stabilization of the real estate market, it is necessary to strictly control the increment, optimize the stock, and improve the quality of commodity housing construction. To respond to the concerns of the masses, we must urgently improve policies on land, finance, taxation, and banking, and promote the construction of a new model for real estate development.

On December 9th, we will expand domestic demand, promote the integration of technological innovation and industrial innovation, stabilize the real estate and stock markets, prevent and resolve risks and external shocks in key areas, stabilize expectations, stimulate vitality, and promote sustained economic recovery and improvement.

In summary, the real estate market in 2024 can be divided into two stages, 517 and 924.

517 can be seen as a tentative stage, during which the market slightly rebounded after the new policy, but then experienced a habitual decline.

The trial is over, but the effect is not significant. The result is that we need to increase our efforts.

After 924, the market rescue force became increasingly strong, which led to the booming market in first tier cities and some popular second tier cities.

Aunt Yang's final move came amidst this wave of market rescue.

A turning point has emerged in popular cities, with a significant increase in transaction volume and landlords no longer collapsing into price reductions. Some cities have even begun to raise mortgage interest rates.

The long-standing downward cycle seems to be breaking.

Taking Shanghai as an example, according to the data in the article "I didn't expect the landlord mentality in Shanghai to change like this" by the real name Lu Jun, the listing price of second-hand houses in Shanghai in November reached 65989 yuan per square meter, which is the same as the hot real estate market in March 2021, and is a significant month on month price increase.

The listing price does not equal the transaction price, and there is still 10% or even higher bargaining space before the transaction price, but at least it indicates that the landlord's mentality is no longer collapsing.

Recently, many cities have raised their mortgage interest rates, but there are no obvious signs of them falling below 3%.

At present, many cities in Zhejiang and Jiangsu, as well as Guangzhou, Foshan, Fuzhou, Xiamen, Changsha, Wuhan, Qingdao and other cities, have raised the lower limit of first and second home loan interest rates. The lowest level of first home loan interest rate in some cities has been raised to 3.1%. We have analyzed in previous articles that a 3.15% mortgage interest rate is an unbearable burden for banks. With the market improving and the supply-demand imbalance changing, banks do not need to lose money and make a fuss.

Whether it's transaction volume or housing prices, the continuous improvement of popular city data is like waves, wave after wave, causing buyers who were originally on the sidelines to start their journey.

Some potential consumers who have been observing for many years feel that waiting any longer is not meaningful and choose to take action.

2、 The two things of one high and one low in the real estate market deserve special attention

The recovery of the real estate market is certainly important, but structural adjustments are still underway.

Some people care about housing prices, while others care about security.

On December 10th, an important real estate news quietly came out.

According to media reports such as Yangcheng Evening News, Guangzhou has officially launched the "Management Measures for Allocated Affordable Housing (Trial)". This is the first first first tier city to eat crab, aiming to meet the housing needs of the salaried income group. The first batch of projects have convenient transportation and complete supporting facilities.

Guangzhou Anju Group Co., Ltd. has been established in Guangzhou, responsible for the construction and operation management of affordable housing.

The company that specializes in operations is called Anju Company, with clear goals.

Unified and standardized management shall be carried out for registered residence, households with housing difficulties, or various talents introduced in the city.

Allocated affordable housing does not have complete property rights. The regulations stipulate that it is prohibited to convert allocated affordable housing into commercial housing in any way.

The rules of this game are quite strict.

Families who have successfully subscribed shall not engage in the following behaviors:

Unauthorized exchange, transfer, or gift of purchased and allocated affordable housing, rental of purchased and allocated affordable housing, establishment of mortgage rights for purposes other than the purchase of the housing, establishment of residential rights, continuous vacancy for one year or more without justifiable reasons, and other illegal and irregular situations such as changing the use of the housing.

In other words, the right to allocated affordable housing is stuck in residential use and can only be used for self occupation, and cannot be used for renting, reselling, mortgage loans, etc. to obtain investment returns.

Affordable housing meets basic needs and is not an investment product. To some extent, it is similar to Singapore's public housing, as it is a process of separating basic needs from investment.

This divestment is quite important to ensure the stability of the real estate market. Even if the real estate market fluctuates unpredictably in the future, the impact will only be on investment returns and will not affect people's livelihood security.

However, investment products related to real estate are only a small part of the capital and money market, and will not impact China's macroeconomic and financial situation. This is a desperate solution.

On July 10th, Guangzhou Daily reported that Chen Zhiyong, the interim party secretary and chairman of Guangzhou Anju Group, stated that this year, in order to raise funds for the allocation of affordable housing at the municipal level, Guangzhou Anju Group will accelerate the construction of 13 projects, and will launch 3 "on-demand construction" projects in the future, raising more than 10000 units of housing, with a total construction area of 1.75 million square meters and a total investment of over 17 billion yuan.

During the 14th Five Year Plan period, Guangzhou has a large-scale housing fundraising plan, with a total of 1.31 million urban housing units planned and supplied, including 650000 units of newly-built commercial housing and 660000 units of affordable housing. Affordable housing includes public rental housing, shared ownership housing, and affordable rental housing, forming a multi-level structure of ownership, incomplete ownership, and leasing. Based on a household of 3 people, it can solve the housing problems of nearly 2 million people.

Guangzhou is a microcosm, with rapid progress in the renovation of old cities in various cities, and the total supply is not small.

According to statistics from the Ministry of Housing and Urban Rural Development, there are 1.7 million urban villages that need to be renovated in 35 major cities; There are 500000 sets of dilapidated houses that need to be renovated in cities across the country. On October 17th, Minister of Housing and Urban Rural Development Ni Hongjie proposed to implement 1 million sets of urban village renovation and dilapidated house renovation through monetary resettlement, and increase the credit scale of "whitelist" projects to 4 trillion yuan by the end of the year.

These measures currently guarantee infrastructure investment, while in the future they will provide for people's livelihoods.

This is the low of one high and one low, used to ensure a minimum. It can be said that it is a remedial course, covering the housing security system.

There is one high, one low, and one high. In the second half of the year, there is a significant characteristic in the real estate market of first tier and quasi first tier cities, with an increase in transaction volume of tens of millions of high-end improved properties.

Do people with higher incomes want to improve their housing conditions? sure.

Do high-income earners want to indulge in luxury? support.

This year's real estate policy "combination punch" includes four cancellations, four reductions, and two increases, a large part of which is the cancellation of price restrictions, the cancellation of existing standards for ordinary and non ordinary residential properties, and the customization of high-end residential properties.

On November 13th, the Ministry of Finance, the State Administration of Taxation, and the Ministry of Housing and Urban Rural Development issued a notice on tax policies related to promoting the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, including optimizing the deed tax policy for housing transactions, clarifying the preferential policies for value-added tax and land value-added tax that are linked to the cancellation of standards for ordinary and non ordinary residential properties. The State Administration of Taxation also issued a notice on reducing the lower limit of the pre tax rate for land value-added tax, lowering the lower limit of the pre tax rate for land value-added tax. The relevant policies will be implemented from December 1, 2024.

The transaction volume of high-end residential properties in the first half of 2024 was quite average. According to CRIC data, a total of 19000 high-end residential properties with a total price of over 10 million yuan were sold in 61 key cities across the country, a year-on-year decrease of 33.5%, with first tier cities accounting for nearly 70%.

But in the second half of the year, the situation improved and people with investment ability and willingness to improve began to foot the bill.

The source of these people's intentions comes from the successive good news that has emerged in first tier cities.

According to data from CRIC, nearly 1900 high-end residential properties with a total price of over 30 million yuan were sold in Shanghai in the first three quarters of this year, which is 2.6 times higher than the same period last year, setting a new historical high for the number of transactions; 440 high-end residential properties with a total price of over 50 million yuan were sold, which is 3.1 times higher than the same period last year; About 30 high-end residential properties with a total price of over 100 million yuan were sold, which is six times higher than the same period last year. Since 2024, Shanghai has produced a total of 30 "daylight" disks.

As for the popular city of Shenzhen, the 21st Century Business Herald cited statistics from LeYouJia, the largest intermediary agency in Shenzhen. In November, the proportion of second-hand housing transactions with a total price of 10 million to 15 million yuan increased from 6.6% in September to 8.3%, and the proportion of transactions with a total price of over 15 million yuan increased from 2.1% in September to 4.7%; The proportion of 8 million to 10 million yuan increased by nearly 2 percentage points in September.

In Guangzhou, according to a report by First Financial on October 29th, Guangzhou not only produced the "highest transaction price for a single residential property" in mainland China, but also ranked first in the country with a total transaction price of "200 million+" for residential properties.

The high-end residential market in Chengdu has finally ushered in the era of "100000 yuan/square meter", with the emergence of products with a single unit area exceeding 1000 square meters.

The cancellation of the standard for ordinary residential properties and the tax reduction effect, like cooking oil in a raging fire, have increased the confidence of buyers. Faced with interest rate cuts and currency that they don't know where to go from, they stomp their feet and switch to luxury homes, exchanging greetings with onlookers without looking back.

I don't know if these homebuyers are aware that their identity has changed and they have become pure investors.

The real estate market has undergone a huge transformation, with one high and one low. The high is to ensure that investment and consumption do not significantly decline, while the low is to ensure that every move does not affect people's livelihoods and finance.

The separation of the consumption and investment attributes of real estate is the key to returning it to its roots.

After wandering around, I finally realized that this is the path I want to take. Let everyone buy what needs to be bought and ensure what needs to be guaranteed. Caesar's return to Caesar, Rome's return to Rome.

3、 After buying a house and a car, the stimulation of consumption will not stop

Having real estate alone is not enough. The rise of domestic demand requires comprehensive stimulation of consumption.

On the weekend, a friend specially ran from Shanghai to Kunshan, Jiangsu to buy a new mobile phone. The local mobile phone subsidy saved her 800 yuan and she thought it was worth it.

Because the trade in of old cars and appliances is booming, she is considering whether to change to a new car.

Various policies to boost domestic demand are coming out of the toolbox one by one.

The Xinhua Viewpoint article on December 10th extensively discussed the "comprehensive expansion of domestic demand". Domestic demand, composed of consumption and investment, is an important engine of economic growth, connecting economic development on one hand and social livelihood on the other.

The importance of expanding domestic demand has been repeatedly emphasized. The ultra long-term special treasury bond fund of about 300 billion yuan announced in July is aimed at supporting large-scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade in. E-commerce platforms continue to celebrate festivals, and after Singles' Day and Singles' Day, firecrackers are set off all year round. In terms of policy, trade ins are used to expand domestic demand and promote consumption.

Compared to before, everyone's willingness to consume has become so much stronger.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the total retail sales of consumer goods in October reached 4.54 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, with a growth rate 1.6 percentage points faster than the previous month, the highest monthly growth rate since March. In the first ten months of this year, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 39.90 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%, and the growth rate rebounded by 0.2 percentage points from January to September.

The main categories of consumption are real estate and automobiles. Real estate has been analyzed, and automobiles have already taken the lead.

These years can be said to be the year of Chinese brands in the field of automobile consumption.

On December 10th, the Ministry of Commerce released the latest data. As of 24:00 on December 9th, the total number of applications for car trade in subsidies in China has exceeded 5 million, including over 2.44 million scrapped updates and over 2.59 million replacement updates.

In November, the retail sales of passenger cars in China reached 2.423 million units, a year-on-year increase of 16.5%, with a growth rate 5.2 percentage points faster than in October. From January to November, the retail sales of passenger cars reached 20.257 million units, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%. At this rate, it is estimated that China's over 200 million passenger cars will be replaced within ten years, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will further increase.

Besides houses and cars, various regions are competing to stimulate consumption.

From Shaanxi to Guangdong, from Northeast to Hainan, promotional activities are in full swing, and consumer subsidies continue to increase.

Shanghai invested 500 million yuan in fiscal funds to distribute consumer vouchers; Sichuan has invested over 400 million yuan in fiscal funds for the distribution of "Shu Li An Yi" consumer vouchers; Jiangsu focuses on more than 1300 consumer promotion activities in home appliances, home decoration, automobiles, etc; Zhengzhou issues the first batch of 18 million yuan cultural and commercial consumption vouchers

According to the latest data from the Ministry of Commerce, as of 24:00 on December 6th, 29.638 million consumers have purchased 45.85 million units of eight major categories of household appliances, driving sales of 201.97 billion yuan, of which sales of first level energy efficiency products account for over 90%.

These data are important because they not only relate to economic rise, but also to local finances.

The decentralization of consumption tax to local governments is meaningful only when consumption rises. Otherwise, this is a 'hollow tax'.

On July 31st, Caixin Magazine reported that after the Third Plenum of the 20th Central Committee made a systematic deployment to deepen the reform of the financial and tax system, the Ministry of Finance stated on July 31st that in expanding local tax sources, the next step is to consider moving the consumption tax collection link back and steadily downgrading it to the local level, studying the merger of urban maintenance and construction tax, education surcharge, and local education surcharge into local surcharges, and including volatile organic compounds in the scope of environmental protection tax collection.

In the past, local governments mainly collected taxes from value-added tax and land revenue, and were keen on introducing factories to sell land. If the consumption tax was given to the local government, imagine if the local government would go to great lengths to attract people and enterprises with consumption ability? This is probably the fundamental way of motivation.

If Chinese people can and dare to consume, many problems will be solved.

Exporting may not be so difficult because China can import a large amount of goods. If you want to restrict China's exports to other countries, you need to first consider whether the Chinese market still needs it.

Of course, consumption is not only related to the economy, but also a huge change in mindset, such as being proactive and advocating frugality... How traditional virtues can harmonize with each other in the face of consumption is an urgent issue.

But I believe that the fruits of the future have already been planted.

(Disclaimer: This article is an objective analysis made by Yetan Finance based on publicly available information and does not constitute investment advice. Please do not use it as a basis for investment.)

This article is from WeChat official account: Ye Tancai, author: Yun Banjian, editor: Dan Dan

This content is the author's independent viewpoint and does not represent the stance of Tiger Sniff. Reproduction without permission is not allowed. Please contact for authorization matters hezuo@huxiu.com

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20年不买房的人，都跳出来了