emergedFriends of 36Kr

·July 3, 2025 19:47

Citigroup and Goldman Sachs: Gold losing technology stocks lead the rise in the 'blonde girl' market

Cover image comes from the keyword "Golden Cliff/Cliff Edge" in Doubao

When top Wall Street investment banks frequently mention the "blonde girl" market, the brilliance of gold seems to be gradually fading.

According to the Wind Chasing Trading Platform, following Goldman Sachs, Citigroup wrote in its latest research report that the current market situation is showing typical "blonde girl" characteristics - risk appetite is rising, stocks, credit, and technology sectors are performing strongly, but the bond market is performing relatively moderately. The bank believes that gold usually performs poorly in the "blonde girl" market environment, while technology stocks and growth stocks are the main beneficiaries.

Goldilocks refers to an ideal macroeconomic environment with moderate economic growth and moderate inflation.

Citigroup warns: Gold loses its shine in 'blonde girl'

According to Citigroup's analysis, the environment of suppressed inflation in 'blonde girls' means that gold loses its safe haven appeal and performs poorly. At the same time, the economic growth environment may push up real yields and term premiums, increasing the holding cost of gold. In addition, data shows that during the historical "blonde girl" period, the risk return ratio (Sharpe ratio) of gold significantly turned negative.

Another serious issue is market position, as gold has become a "consensus long trade" for asset allocators. According to Citigroup data, asset allocators still maintain consensus trading on precious metals (although there has been a decrease). The 3-year Z-value of CFTC managed funds shows that gold scored above the median, while silver scored the highest within its coverage area.

Citigroup warns that traditional safe haven assets such as gold may be more vulnerable in the current consensus bullish environment on precious metals. Citigroup's commodity strategy team has downgraded its gold rating as a result, believing that "the market supply and demand gap is about to peak, and growth risks are diminishing".

In contrast, technology and growth stocks are expected to continue to benefit. According to Citigroup data, in the blonde environment, the technology and communication services sector performed the best, while defensive sectors such as consumer essentials, utilities, and healthcare performed poorly.

The report points out that stock factor returns also conform to the characteristics of blonde girls, with growth and momentum factors outperforming value and low beta factors. Foreign exchange arbitrage trading and commodity quantification strategies also tend to perform well in a blonde environment.

However, the report also mentioned that the current market is not entirely in a "blonde girl" state, but rather leans towards a "normal regime": economic growth is slightly above trend levels, and inflation is slightly below trend. The true 'blonde girl' requires more extreme conditions: inflation needs to be 1 standard deviation lower than the 10-year average, and growth needs to be 1.4 standard deviations higher.

Although the status has not fully met the standards, the current asset performance has shown the characteristics of a "blonde girl": technology stocks are leading the way, credit assets are sought after, but fixed income performance is struggling.

AI productivity revolution drives structural transformation

According to Citigroup's analysis, AI technology has the potential to become an important structural driving force for productivity, enhancing economic growth without driving up inflation. According to the report, the Goldilocks period in history was often accompanied by productivity growth, including the Internet boom in the mid-1980s and the late 1990s.

The model research of Citigroup's global economic team found that if AI can automate routine tasks, it may achieve higher unit worker output and lower cross industry operating costs, thereby supporting higher output growth. The report points out that the blonde period usually supports higher real returns, stock valuations, and improved financial conditions.

According to Citigroup data, the S&P 500 index is currently in the 75th percentile of the valuation of blonde girls, but this is still within a relatively high range. The actual yield is lower than the median, and the term premium is also lower, indicating that there may be more steepening of the yield curve.

Despite the optimistic long-term outlook, Citigroup also reminds investors to pay attention to short-term cyclical risks. The report points out that the weak labor market and tariff uncertainty in the United States still need to be cautiously addressed. Citigroup's US economic team expects that a weak labor market may lead to the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates starting from September. According to Citigroup's forecast, the GDP growth rate in the United States will drop to 0.2% year-on-year in the third quarter, and then accelerate to 1.1% in the fourth quarter.

Goldman Sachs synchronously optimistic about the prospects of 'blonde girls'

Goldman Sachs also emphasized the resurgence of the "blonde girl" market in its latest research report.

According to a previous article on Wall Street, Goldman Sachs believes that the strengthening of dovish expectations from the Federal Reserve, the cooling of geopolitical risks, and progress in trade negotiations have collectively created a "blonde girl" style macro background - the economy is not overheating and inflation is not too high. At present, the market values the benefits brought by loose expectations more, which has driven the rebound of risk appetite.

Goldman Sachs released a research report on Monday stating that there have been significant positive changes in the market environment, driven by three core factors:

Enhanced dovish expectations of the Federal Reserve: The market's expectations for the Fed's dovish stance have significantly increased. Goldman Sachs economists have advanced their forecast for the next interest rate cut to September and lowered their final rate forecast to the range of 3-3.25%.

Geopolitical risk cooling: The easing of tensions in the Middle East has reduced the geopolitical risk premium in the market.

Progress in trade negotiations: Positive developments in US trade negotiations, including the removal of Section 899, have provided support for growth prospects.

Considering that the market is pricing in a more ideal "blonde girl" environment, Goldman Sachs recommends investors adopt option hedging strategies, emphasizing the need to focus on diversified allocation by region and style during the summer period. Specific hedging recommendations include:

To hedge against stagflation shocks: It is recommended to purchase put options or credit default swaps (CDS) on high-yield US dollar bonds (USD HY).

To hedge against a rebound in inflation, it is recommended to purchase rates payers for interest rate swaps.

Other suggestions: Use European banking sector call options and emerging market collar options to hedge against position reversal risks.

This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not represent the platform's views. There are risks in the market, and investment needs to be cautious. Please make independent judgments and decisions.   

This article is from the WeChat official account "Wall Street News", written by Long Yue Bao Yilong, 36 Krypton is authorized to release.

The viewpoint of this article only represents the author himself, and the 36Kr platform only provides information storage space services.

黄金真正的风险出现了