Is Temu's popular product "abandoned" for full custody? Semi custodial mode is coming, is there an opportunity for sellers?

Is Temu's popular product "abandoned" for full custody? Semi custodial mode is coming, is there an opportunity for sellers?

Cross border B sister Bailey

follow with interest

2025-03-27

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  Product managers need to focus on different aspects at different career stages, ranging from basic skills, business depth, professional fields to strategic planning and management abilities.

In March 2025, Temu suddenly announced the migration of popular products from full custody mode to semi custody mode. This decision not only sparked extensive discussions in cross-border e-commerce circles, but also posed new challenges to sellers' operational strategies and future development. This article will delve into the motivations behind Temu's implementation of the semi custodial model, its impact on the industry ecosystem, the challenges faced by small and medium-sized sellers, and future development trends. It will explore how sellers can seize opportunities and achieve breakthroughs in this transformation.

The cross-border e-commerce circle is once again making waves! Have you also received the 'ultimatum' from Temu platform?

At the beginning of 2024, Temu quietly piloted the "semi custodial model", allowing merchants to independently ship through overseas warehouses and directly shorten logistics time to 3-5 days. At that time, many merchants were still immersed in the imagination of policy dividends, thinking that this was just a "gentle test" by the platform. However, no one expected that this was just an appetizer. In March 2025, the platform suddenly launched a "big killer" - the "fully managed popular product migration plan", requiring all popular products to switch to semi managed mode before April 1, otherwise traffic support will be significantly reduced. Now, the entire cross-border e-commerce circle has exploded.

Just as merchants were hesitating whether to keep up with the policy, Temu launched a "one click cross subject product migration" tool, which not only inherits historical sales and reviews, but also enjoys special support such as search top and exclusive pricing channels when migrating products. This wave of operations has completely ignited the nerves of sellers. Some people are happy, while others are worried. Big sellers are all gearing up, and top brands such as Anke and Zhiou Technology have migrated in bulk to seize the traffic dividend; However, small and medium-sized sellers have been complaining incessantly. Quanzhou jewelry merchants were forced to give up due to the "200000 inventory threshold", and the first batch of unsold earrings were even donated to charitable organizations.

This is a war without gunpowder, with some people partying and others leaving, while the strong promotion of policies is pushing cross-border e-commerce to a new turning point.

1、 Cause analysis: Why did Temu "break his arm"? Three major thrusts and a big gamble

1. Survival instinct under high tariff pressure

The cancellation of the "small package tax exemption" policy in the United States is like a tight spell, firmly holding the throat of cross-border e-commerce. The cost of direct mail has soared by 45%, and the once proud price advantage has disappeared. The fully managed model is struggling under the impact of high tariffs. Faced with this sudden external pressure, Temu's transformation is particularly urgent, and the semi custodial model has become a lifeline in this predicament.

After 8 years as a product manager, this is how I view product managers

I personally started as a very junior product manager, and then went on to be responsible for project management of a large product. Now, I am fortunate enough to step out of my daily basic work and focus more on the PMF of the product, product strategy...

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In the fully managed mode, the platform undertakes all the links from procurement to logistics, and the goods are uniformly shipped from China, which means that each item has to face high tariffs and strict inspections. Wool comes from sheep, and ultimately these costs will be passed on to consumers, leading to an increase in commodity prices and a decrease in competitiveness.

The semi hosted mode provides a more flexible path. By shipping locally from overseas warehouses, sellers can effectively avoid high inspection rates and tariff risks, resulting in an immediate cost reduction of 20% -30%. This can not only increase the profit margin of the product, but also seize the opportunity in the price war.

Imagine the same product being shipped domestically and burdened with heavy tariff costs; Another option is to ship directly from overseas warehouses in the United States, carrying light equipment. It's clear at a glance which one is better or worse.

For Temu, shifting to a semi custodial model is not a simple strategic adjustment, but rather a survival instinct under high tariffs. The platform needs to reduce operating costs, enhance market competitiveness, and ultimately win survival space in the fierce cross-border e-commerce battlefield through this approach. For sellers, this is both a challenge and an opportunity. Whether they can seize this wave of dividends depends on who can adapt to the new game rules faster.

2. The life and death race of logistics efficiency

In the red ocean of cross-border e-commerce, logistics efficiency is becoming a crucial factor that determines life and death. For sellers, logistics is not only the "last mile" of product delivery, but also the "lifeline" of user experience and repurchase rate. The "slow" pain of the fully managed model is pushing many merchants to the edge of the cliff.

In the direct mail mode, the long waiting time of 7-15 days greatly reduces the user experience, and the repurchase rate drops directly to Amazon's "floor" - this data is enough to make any seller shudder. You should know that Amazon's 2-5 day delivery time has already become the "gold standard" in the hearts of users, and the "slow speed" of the fully managed model has undoubtedly become a "fatal flaw" that sellers find difficult to overcome.

But the emergence of the semi custodial model has brought a turning point to this "speed of life and death". By shipping from overseas warehouses locally, the logistics time has been compressed to 3 days, and the user experience is directly benchmarked against Amazon Prime. The advantage of this "lightning delivery" not only allows sellers to occupy a high ground in competition, but also achieves a qualitative leap in user loyalty. In this competition of logistics efficiency, the semi custodial model is redefining the future of cross-border e-commerce.

3. Platform Strategy Upgrade: From "Low Price Dumping" to "Ecological Empire"

In the red ocean of cross-border e-commerce, Temu is staging a textbook level strategic upgrade. From the price war of "low price dumping" to the current ambition of "ecological empire", Temu's every turn is redefining the industry landscape.

Once, Temu rose rapidly with its "extreme low price" strategy, attracting users through a massive collection of low-priced products, but such tactics were ultimately unsustainable. Nowadays, Temu is following Amazon's lead by introducing a third-party merchant model, focusing on supporting high priced products, especially furniture, home appliances, and other categories, with a goal of targeting the high-end price range of over $2000. This strategic adjustment is not only a comprehensive upgrade of platform tone, but also a precise targeting of user consumption mentality.

At the same time, the platform's traffic distribution is quietly changing. The proportion of traffic in the fully managed mode has dropped to 30%, while semi managed products firmly occupy 50% -70% of the recommended positions on the homepage with more efficient logistics and flexible operations. Behind this traffic tilt is Temu's thoughtful consideration of user experience and platform ecology. By supporting high-quality sellers and high-end products, Temu is gradually moving towards an "ecological empire", attempting to create a full scenario cross-border e-commerce ecosystem that covers low and high prices, efficiency and quality.

This upgrade from a "price war" to an "ecological war" is not only Temu's self revolution, but also a microcosm of the entire cross-border e-commerce industry moving towards higher quality development. In this transformation, whoever can seize the opportunity of platform strategic upgrading will be able to take the lead in the battle for the "ecological empire".

2、 Industry shock wave: Who will be eliminated? Who is rising?

1. Merchant stratification: a feast for cross-border veterans and industrial belt giants

In the storm of policy changes, the "Matthew effect" of cross-border e-commerce is accelerating. The strong remain strong, while the weak are eliminated. Temu's policy adjustments are reshaping the ecological pattern of cross-border merchants and pushing the fate of cross-border veterans and small and medium-sized sellers in completely different directions.

In this transformation, the winners are often those cross-border veterans who have experienced numerous battles. They have a stable overseas warehouse layout, are familiar with the secrets of supply chain management, and have accumulated rich operational experience on platforms such as Amazon. These merchants have already developed the ability to operate on multiple platforms and can quickly adapt to Temu's new policies. Leading brands such as Anke Innovation and Zhiou Technology have taken the lead in completing the migration of popular products and seizing the opportunity in this transformation by leveraging these advantages.

On the other hand, the survival space of small and medium-sized sellers is gradually being squeezed. Those businesses that once relied on "one click image selection" and lacked inventory and stocking capabilities are facing an unprecedented crisis of elimination. Quanzhou's jewelry merchants are a typical case, as they cannot meet the "200000 inventory threshold" requirement and have to choose to withdraw, even donating unsold goods to charitable organizations. The data shows that the exit rate of these small and medium-sized sellers may reach as high as 15%, which is not only a blow to them, but also a "big wave washing sand" for the entire industry.

2. Category Revolution: From "$0.99 Daily Necessities" to "Commercial Industrial Products"

From the initial "$0.99 daily necessities" to today's "commercial industrial products", Temu is quietly changing its positioning and trying to tear off the label of "cheap platform".

Recently, the Temu platform has seen a surge in demand for a group of "new elites" - BISS (commercial, industrial, scientific research equipment) products. From laboratory equipment to commercial kitchen supplies, these products not only have high repurchase rates, but also have order sizes far exceeding traditional daily necessities. Data shows that in the third quarter of 2023, the sales of BISS products on the Temu platform increased by 120% year-on-year. Behind this data is Temu's precise layout for high value-added categories.

Even more surprisingly, Temu has begun to completely break through the "low price" ceiling. Recently, high priced products such as marble bathtubs ($2500) and sturgeon caviar ($250) have appeared on the platform and successfully made it to the homepage. These products not only attract the attention of high-end buyers, but also quietly shift Temu's user base from being "price sensitive" to being "quality-oriented".

Behind this category revolution is Temu's deep insight into user needs. By introducing categories with high repurchase rates and high average customer value, Temu not only enhances the platform's profitability, but also gradually weakens the stereotype of a "cheap platform". For merchants, this means new opportunities: sellers who excel in supply chain management and brand operations are becoming the biggest winners of this category revolution. And those merchants who are still addicted to "low-priced explosive products" may gradually be marginalized in this transformation.

3、 Controversy and hidden concerns: platform infighting and ecological imbalance

1. The 'civil war' between semi trusteeship and full trusteeship

The semi custodial business group took the lead in making a challenge, stating that the full custodial model has a "limited ceiling" and believes that it cannot meet the platform's demand for high profits and high growth. They believe that the fully managed model relies too much on the platform's own supply chain and product selection capabilities, making it difficult to meet the increasingly complex market demands. The semi custodial model gives merchants greater autonomy, shortening logistics time through overseas warehouse shipments, improving user experience, and bringing more possibilities for high value-added products to the platform. Therefore, the semi hosting team continuously strives to tilt more resources towards the platform, attempting to dominate in traffic allocation.

However, fully managed merchants are suffering greatly. They found that their product search rankings were being squeezed by semi managed products, and traffic distribution was severely imbalanced. Some fully managed merchants have reported that the previously stable order volume has sharply decreased, and some products have even been directly "shelved". The situation of "resource depletion" has led fully managed merchants to question the fairness of the platform.

In this' civil war ', the allocation of platform resources has become the focus. On the one hand, the semi custodial model is considered the mainstream direction of the future, and platforms are constantly increasing their support for semi custodial merchants; On the other hand, the fully managed model, as Temu's early core business, still undertakes a large number of order demands from small and medium-sized sellers. The resource competition between the two not only exposes strategic contradictions within the platform, but also puts merchants in a dilemma of "taking sides".

The outcome of this' civil war 'may determine the future ecological direction of Temu. For businesses, finding their place in this traffic battle will be the most important issue going forward. For platforms, how to balance the relationship between the two modes and avoid "internal friction" is the key to this war

2. The survival paradox of small and medium-sized sellers

Temu's semi custodial model may seem to bring about logistics acceleration and traffic dividends, but for small and medium-sized sellers, it is a difficult balancing battle. The semi custodial model requires small and medium-sized sellers to bear the upfront shipping costs and overseas warehouse rent, and the payment cycle is extended by more than 30 days. The originally meager profits have been greatly eroded by logistics and warehousing costs, and cash flow is even more strained. Many sellers lamented, "Profit has been squeezed, and even survival has become a challenge

In addition, multi warehouse operations have raised higher requirements for merchants' data management capabilities. Traditional Excel is difficult to cope with, and inventory mismatch problems occur frequently. Some products are stockpiled in overseas warehouses but out of stock in domestic warehouses; Some products are unsold after being transferred to overseas warehouses due to changes in demand. This situation of 'neglecting one aspect at the expense of another' has made small and medium-sized sellers anxious about their future operations.

In this transformation, the survival dilemma of small and medium-sized sellers is not only an individual struggle, but also a challenge that the entire cross-border e-commerce ecosystem needs to face together

4、 Future outlook: Will semi tube become mainstream? How can sellers break through?

1. Trend prediction: 2025 may become the "first year of semi trust management"

Under the 'great transformation' of cross-border e-commerce, a new era is quietly approaching. 2025 may become the "first year of semi trust management". Temu's goal is clear: the proportion of semi custodial transactions will exceed 60%, surpassing the full custodial model comprehensively. This means that in the future, cross-border e-commerce will rely more on overseas warehouse layout, and the operation mode of merchants will undergo fundamental changes.

At the same time, the platform's ambitions go far beyond that. It is reported that Temu is actively seeking investment, and international brands such as Unilever and Lenovo may be among the first to join the list. The addition of these big brands will not only further improve the platform's supply chain system, but also promote cross-border e-commerce to move towards the "quality of life" scenario. From "low-priced popular products" to "quality consumption", this may be a key step for Temu to lead the industry upgrade.

For small and medium-sized sellers, this is both a challenge and an opportunity. Whoever can take the lead in adjusting strategies and optimizing operations in this transformation will be able to occupy a place in future competition. And those merchants who fail to keep up with the pace may only become the losers in this' semi custodial revolution '. In 2025, the ecosystem of cross-border e-commerce is undergoing restructuring, and whoever can grasp this trend will be able to laugh to the end in this transformation.

2. The way to break through: A "self-help guide" for small and medium-sized sellers

In this' semi custodial revolution ', the lives of small and medium-sized sellers are not easy. But instead of passively waiting to be eliminated, it's better to actively seek ways to break through. Breaking through with light assets may be the first step for small and medium-sized sellers. Collaborating with POD (On Demand Production) service providers such as HICUTOM not only enables on-demand production, but also minimizes inventory risks to the greatest extent possible. Say goodbye to the traditional bulk stocking model, small and medium-sized sellers can more flexibly respond to market demand, focus on design and marketing, rather than being overwhelmed by inventory.

At the same time, the empowerment of tools is becoming a "life-saving straw" for small and medium-sized sellers. After integrating into the Yichang ERP system, order processing has been automated, inventory dynamics have been monitored in real-time, and the error rate has been reduced by 50%. This means that small and medium-sized sellers can focus more on product innovation and market insights, rather than being burdened by cumbersome order and inventory management.

In the fiercely competitive red ocean market, differentiation is the king. Small and medium-sized sellers may want to avoid the category of price wars and instead focus on customized products, such as engraved jewelry, customized gifts, etc. In addition, attempting to combine sales value-added services such as packaging upgrades, engraving services, etc. can also double the added value of the product. In this "half trust management year", in order for small and medium-sized sellers to stand out in this transformation, they must break traditional thinking patterns and find their own "way to break through the situation".

Temu's popular product migration plan is essentially a "survival of the fittest" screening - only merchants with supply chain resilience, localization capabilities, and data-driven operations can survive in this ecological reconstruction. For platforms, how to balance "scale expansion" and "ecological health" and avoid becoming a second "Pinduoduo low-priced internal competition field" will be a longer-term proposition.

This article was originally published by @ Bashaoye and published by Everyone is a Product Manager. Reproduction without permission is prohibited.

The title image is from Unsplash, based on the CC0 protocol.

The viewpoint of this article only represents the author himself, and everyone is a product manager. The platform only provides information storage space services.

Temu爆款“弃”全托管？半托管模式来袭，卖家机会来了？

跨境B姐Bailey关注

2025-03-27

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2025年3月，Temu突然宣布将爆品从全托管模式迁移至半托管模式，这一决策不仅引发了跨境电商圈的广泛讨论，也对卖家的运营策略和未来发展提出了新的挑战。本文将深入分析Temu推行半托管模式的动因、对行业生态的冲击、中小卖家面临的困境以及未来的发展趋势，探讨在这一变革中，卖家如何抓住机遇，实现破局。

跨境电商圈又起波澜！你是否也收到了Temu平台的“最后通牒”？

2024年初，Temu悄然试点“半托管模式”，让商家通过海外仓自主发货，物流时效直接缩短至3-5天。当时，不少商家还沉浸在政策红利的想象中，觉得这不过是平台的一次“温柔试探”。然而，谁也没想到，这仅仅是开胃小菜。2025年3月，平台突然祭出“大杀器”——“全托管爆款迁移计划”，要求所有爆品在4月1日前转入半托管模式，否则流量扶持将大幅减少。这下，整个跨境电商圈都炸了锅。

就在商家们还在犹豫要不要跟上政策时，Temu又放大招：推出“跨主体一键搬品”工具，迁移商品不仅能继承历史销量与评论，还能享受搜索置顶、专属核价通道等特殊扶持。这一波操作，彻底点燃了卖家们的神经。有人欢喜有人愁，大卖家们纷纷摩拳擦掌，安克、致欧科技等头部品牌已批量迁移，抢占流量红利；而中小卖家却叫苦不迭，泉州饰品商家因“20万库存门槛”被迫放弃，首批滞销耳钉甚至被捐赠给慈善机构。

这是一场没有硝烟的战争，有人狂欢，有人离场，而政策的强推正将跨境电商推向一个全新的拐点。

一、动因拆解：Temu为何“壮士断腕”？三大推力与一场豪赌

1.关税高压下的求生本能

美国取消“小包裹免税”政策，如同一道紧箍咒，狠狠地勒住了跨境电商的咽喉。直邮成本飙升45%，曾经引以为傲的价格优势荡然无存，全托管模式在高额关税的冲击下显得步履维艰。面对这突如其来的外部压力，Temu的转型显得尤为迫切，而半托管模式，恰恰成为这困境中的一根救命稻草。

做了8年产品经理后，我是这么看产品经理的

我个人是从非常初级的产品经理做起，再到负责一个大产品的项目管理，现在有幸跳出了日常基础的工作更多的去看产品的PMF，product strategy...

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全托管模式下，平台承担了从采购到物流的全部环节，商品统一从国内发货，这就意味着每一件商品都要直面高额关税和严苛的查验。羊毛出在羊身上，最终这些成本都会转嫁到消费者身上，导致商品价格上涨，竞争力下降。

而半托管模式则提供了一条更灵活的路径。通过海外仓本地发货，卖家可以有效规避高查验率和关税风险，成本立竿见影地降低20%-30%。这不仅能提升商品的利润空间，更能在价格战中抢占先机。

想象一下，同样的商品，一个是从国内发货，背负着沉重的关税成本；另一个则是从美国本土的海外仓直接发出，轻装上阵。孰优孰劣，一目了然。

对于Temu而言，转向半托管模式并非简单的战略调整，更是在关税高压下的求生本能。平台需要通过这种方式来降低运营成本，提升市场竞争力，最终在激烈的跨境电商战场中赢得生存空间。而对于卖家来说，这既是挑战，也是机遇，能否抓住这波红利，就看谁能更快适应新的游戏规则。

2.物流效率的生死竞速

在跨境电商这片红海中，物流效率正在成为决定生死的关键砝码。对于卖家而言，物流不仅是商品送达的“最后一公里”，更是用户体验和复购率的“生命线”。而全托管模式的“慢”痛，正在将许多商家推向悬崖边缘。

直邮模式下，7-15天的漫长等待，让用户体验大打折扣，复购率直接降至亚马逊的“地板”——这个数据足以让任何卖家心惊胆寒。要知道，亚马逊的2-5天时效早已成为用户心中的“黄金标准”，而全托管模式的“龟速”无疑成为了卖家们难以跨越的“致命伤”。

但半托管模式的横空出世，为这场“生死时速”带来了转机。通过海外仓本土发货，物流时效被压缩至3天，用户体验直接对标亚马逊Prime。这种“闪电发货”的优势，不仅让卖家在竞争中占据了制高点，更让用户的忠诚度实现了质的飞跃。在这场物流效率的较量中，半托管模式正在重新定义跨境电商的未来。

3.平台战略升级：从“低价倾销”到“生态帝国”

在跨境电商这片红海中，Temu正在上演一场堪称教科书级别的战略升级。从“低价倾销”的价格战，到如今的“生态帝国”野心，Temu的每一次转身都在重新定义行业格局。

曾经，Temu以“极致低价”迅速崛起，通过海量低价商品吸引用户，但这样的打法终究难以为继。如今，Temu开始向亚马逊看齐，大刀阔斧地引入第三方商家模式，重点扶持高客单价商品，尤其是家具、家电等品类，目标直指2000美元以上的高端价格带。这一战略调整，不仅是对平台调性的全面升级，更是对用户消费心智的精准狙击。

与此同时，平台的流量分配也在悄然生变。全托管模式的流量占比已跌至30%，而半托管商品凭借更高效的物流和更灵活的运营，牢牢占据了首页50%-70%的推荐位。这种流量倾斜的背后，是Temu对用户体验和平台生态的深思熟虑。通过扶持优质卖家和高端商品，Temu正在一步步向“生态帝国”迈进，试图打造一个涵盖低价与高价、效率与品质的全场景跨境电商生态。

这场从“价格战”到“生态战”的升级，不仅是Temu的自我革命，更是整个跨境电商行业迈向更高质量发展的缩影。在这场变革中，谁能抓住平台战略升级的机遇，谁就能在这场“生态帝国”的争夺战中占据先机。

二、行业冲击波：谁被淘汰？谁在崛起？

1.商家分层：跨境老手与产业带巨头的盛宴

在这场政策变革的风暴中，跨境电商的“马太效应”正在加速显现。强者恒强，弱者出局，Temu的政策调整正在重塑跨境商家的生态格局，也将跨境老手与中小卖家的命运推向了截然不同的方向。

在这场变革中，胜出者往往是那些“身经百战”的跨境老兵。他们拥有稳定的海外仓布局，谙熟供应链管理的秘诀，更是在亚马逊等平台上积累了丰富的运营经验。这些商家早已练就了“多平台运营”的本领，能够快速适应Temu的新政策。安克创新、致欧科技等头部品牌正是凭借这些优势，率先完成了爆款迁移，在这场变革中抢占了先机。

而另一边，中小卖家的生存空间正在被一步步压缩。那些曾经依赖“一键搬图”选品、缺乏库存备货能力的商家，正在面临着前所未有的淘汰危机。泉州的饰品商家便是典型案例，他们因为无法满足“20万库存门槛”的要求，不得不选择退出，甚至将滞销商品捐赠给慈善机构。数据显示，这类中小卖家的退出率可能高达15%，这不仅是对他们的打击，更是对整个行业的一次“大浪淘沙”。

2.品类革命：从“$0.99日用品”到“商用工业品”

从最初的“$0.99日用品”到如今的“商用工业品”，Temu正在悄然改变自己的定位，试图撕下“廉价平台”的标签。

最近，Temu平台上迎来了一批“新贵”——BISS（商用、工业、科研器材）类商品需求暴涨。从实验室设备到商用厨房用品，这些商品不仅复购率高，订单规模更是远超传统日用品。数据显示，2023年第三季度，Temu平台上BISS类商品的销售额同比增长了120%。这一数据背后，是Temu对高附加值品类的精准布局。

更令人意外的是，Temu开始彻底突破“低价”天花板。近期，平台上出现了大理石浴缸（2500美元）、鲟鱼子酱（250美元）等高价商品，并成功登上首页。这些商品不仅吸引了高端买家的目光，更让Temu的用户群体从“价格敏感型”向“品质需求型”发生了悄然转变。

这场品类革命的背后，是Temu对用户需求的深度洞察。通过引入高复购率、高客单价的品类，Temu不仅提升了平台的盈利能力，更在逐步弱化“廉价平台”的刻板印象。对于商家而言，这意味着新的机遇：那些擅长供应链管理和品牌运营的卖家，正在成为这场品类革命的最大赢家。而那些仍沉溺于“低价爆款”的商家，则可能在这场变革中被逐渐边缘化。

三、争议与隐忧：平台内斗与生态失衡

1.半托管与全托管的“内战”

半托管业务组率先发难，直言全托管模式“天花板有限”，认为其无法满足平台对高利润、高增长的需求。他们认为，全托管模式过于依赖平台自身的供应链和选品能力，难以应对日益复杂的市场需求。而半托管模式则赋予商家更大的自主权，通过海外仓发货缩短物流时效，提升用户体验，同时为平台带来更多高附加值商品的可能性。因此，半托管团队不断向平台争取更多资源倾斜，试图在流量分配上占据主导地位。

然而，全托管商家却苦不堪言。他们发现，自己的商品搜索排名正被半托管商品挤压，流量分配严重失衡。一些全托管商家反馈，原本稳定的订单量骤减，部分商品甚至被直接“雪藏”。这种“资源内耗”的局面，让全托管商家开始质疑平台的公平性。

在这场“内战”中，平台的资源分配成为焦点。一方面，半托管模式被认为是未来的主流方向，平台也在不断加大对半托管商家的支持力度；另一方面，全托管模式作为Temu早期的核心业务，仍然承担着大量中小卖家的订单需求。两者之间的资源争夺，不仅暴露了平台内部的战略矛盾，也让商家们陷入了“站队”的两难境地。

这场“内战”的胜负，或许将决定Temu未来的生态走向。对于商家而言，如何在这场流量争夺战中找到自己的位置，将是接下来最重要的课题。而对于平台来说，如何平衡两种模式的关系，避免“内耗”，才是这场战争的关键

2.中小卖家的生存悖论

Temu的半托管模式看似带来了物流提速和流量红利，但对中小卖家而言，这是一场艰难的平衡战。半托管模式要求中小卖家自行垫付头程运费和海外仓租金，回款周期更是延长了30天以上。原本微薄的利润被物流和仓储费用大幅侵蚀，现金流更是捉襟见肘。不少卖家感叹：“利润被压榨，连生存都成了难题。”

此外多仓运营对商家的数据管理能力也提出了更高要求，传统Excel难以应对，库存错配问题频发。有的商品在海外仓积压，却在国内仓断货；有的商品调拨到海外仓后因需求变化滞销。这种“顾此失彼”的局面，让中小卖家对未来的运营充满焦虑。

在这场变革中，中小卖家的生存困境不仅是一场个体的挣扎，更是整个跨境电商生态需要共同面对的挑战

四、未来展望：半托管将成主流？卖家如何破局？

1.趋势预测：2025年或成“半托管元年”

在这场跨境电商的“大变革”下，一个全新的时代正在悄然到来。2025年，或许将成为“半托管元年”。Temu的目标明确：半托管交易额占比将超过60%，全面超越全托管模式。这意味着，未来的跨境电商将更加倚重海外仓布局，商家的运营模式也将发生根本性转变。

与此同时，平台的野心远不止于此。据悉，Temu正在积极招商，联合利华、联想等国际品牌或将成为首批入驻名单。这些大牌的加入，不仅将进一步完善平台的供应链体系，还将推动跨境电商向“品质生活”场景迈进。从“低价爆款”到“品质消费”，这或许将是Temu引领行业升级的关键一步。

对于中小卖家而言，这既是挑战，也是机遇。谁能在这场变革中率先调整策略、优化运营，谁就能在未来的竞争中占据一席之地。而那些未能跟上节奏的商家，或许只能成为这场“半托管革命”中的出局者。2025年，跨境电商的生态正在重构，谁能把握住这波趋势，谁就能在这场变革中笑到最后。

2.破局之道：中小卖家的“自救指南”

在这场“半托管革命”中，中小卖家的日子并不好过。但与其被动等待被淘汰，不如主动寻找破局之道。轻资产突围，或许是中小卖家的第一步。与指纹科技HICUSTOM等POD（按需生产）服务商合作，不仅能实现按需生产，还能最大程度降低库存风险。告别传统的大批量备货模式，中小卖家可以更灵活地应对市场需求，专注于设计和营销，而不是被库存压得喘不过气。

与此同时，工具的赋能正在成为中小卖家的“救命稻草”。接入易仓ERP系统后，订单处理实现自动化，库存动态实时监控，错发率更是降低了50%。这意味着，中小卖家可以将更多精力放在产品创新和市场洞察上，而不是被繁琐的订单和库存管理拖累。

而在竞争激烈的红海市场中，差异化才是王道。中小卖家不妨避开价格战硝烟弥漫的类目，转而聚焦定制化产品，比如刻字饰品、定制礼品等。此外，尝试组合销售增值服务，比如包装升级、刻字服务等，也能让产品附加值倍增。在这个“半托管元年”，中小卖家要想在这场变革中脱颖而出，就必须打破传统的思维定式，找到属于自己的“破局之道”。

Temu的爆款迁徙计划，本质是一场“适者生存”的筛选——唯有供应链韧性、本地化能力、数据化运营兼备的商家，方能在这场生态重构中存活。而对平台而言，如何平衡“规模扩张”与“生态健康”，避免沦为第二个“拼多多低价内卷场”，将是更长期的命题。

本文由 @芭蕉叶 原创发布于人人都是产品经理。未经许可，禁止转载。

题图来自Unsplash，基于CC0协议。

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