Don't underestimate Lei Jun's judgment
Don't underestimate Lei Jun's judgment
Meng Yonghui
·2024-12-16 11:02
Don't underestimate.
If we use one word to describe the current car manufacturing market, 'critical point' is undoubtedly the most appropriate.
Whether it is the continuous reshuffling of various players on the car making track or the fierce competition between new and old forces in car making, all of them are direct manifestations of this phenomenon.
When the "critical point" of the car manufacturing market arrives, the next step will inevitably enter a completely new stage. If we summarize and define such a stage, it is undoubtedly most appropriate to enter the true new generation of car manufacturing.
One of the important reasons for such a judgment is that in the past, car manufacturing only focused on transforming the driving methods of cars, that is, transforming traditional fossil fuels into modern electric power.
With the low cost of new energy and lower carbon emissions, car makers have firmly established themselves in the automotive industry. So, we cannot help but ask, is simply replacing the energy of cars really the end of car manufacturing?
We can see very intuitively from the performance of Tesla, the top player in the car making track, that the focus of competition in the future car making track will inevitably shift from energy driven competition to driving style competition.
More precisely, in the upcoming year of 2025, new forces in car manufacturing and pioneers in car manufacturing will once again encounter each other in autonomous driving and engage in close combat.
We can see a hint of this from Lei Jun's extravagant throwing of 10 billion dollars, which can be seen as a threshold for the card table.
In other words, we should not underestimate Lei Jun's judgment that the car manufacturing track has entered a new cycle.
one
This is definitely not an exaggeration.
In recent years, the popularity of new energy vehicles, especially the new forces in car manufacturing represented by Tesla, BYD, NIO, Xiaopeng, and Ideal, has led people to assume that the current car manufacturing track is already dominated by new forces in car manufacturing, and traditional car players who have been forced into corners no longer have any opportunities.
If we only define the current automotive industry based on this, it is actually too simplistic and arbitrary.
Unlike what the outside world believes is that the competition in the car making track has already settled, I prefer to see the outstanding performance of players in the current car making track as a way to stand firm.
Looking at the major car makers still wandering on the edge of profit and loss, and at the layout of traditional car makers for new energy and the trial of autonomous driving, we can clearly feel that the dust settles on the so-called car making track, and it is not just a matter of getting stuck on the board.
Even the new forces in car manufacturing who are now forced into the corner still have a chance to turn things around.
If we summarize and define such an opportunity for turning over, autonomous driving, represented by unmanned driving, will inevitably be a major aspect.
It is almost certain that in the upcoming year of 2025, players of new and old car manufacturing will need to shift their focus from traditional new energy to AI led autonomous driving in order to truly stay on the table and achieve new developments and breakthroughs.
For every car manufacturer, as long as they truly squeeze onto the table of autonomous driving, they can make achievements in the new cycle.
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In fact, the competition for autonomous driving on the car manufacturing track has already begun.
Whether Musk is running around for Tesla's FSD technology, Baidu's autonomous driving is starting to land in the taxi market in different cities, or Huawei is starting to apply autonomous driving technology to itself and its partners, we can see that autonomous driving is increasingly becoming a new focus of competition for car makers.
For every player who wants to stay at the table of new energy vehicles, only by firmly establishing a foothold in new energy vehicle manufacturing, laying out autonomous driving, and using autonomous driving to widen the gap between themselves and the previous stage of vehicle manufacturing players, can they truly bring their own development into a new stage.
When the competition in the automotive industry enters a new stage of autonomous driving, the capital market's attention to car makers will no longer be limited to energy driven methods, but will focus more on new fields represented by autonomous driving.
When the power of capital begins to focus its attention on this, we will also see a phenomenon of intensified reshuffling in the car manufacturing track, represented by the collapse of Jitsu cars.
Recently, Lu Weibing, partner and president of Xiaomi Group, president of the mobile phone department, and general manager of Xiaomi brand, shared the background of Xiaomi's independent car manufacturing on Weibo. He said: In February 2021, when Xiaomi decided to make cars, there were multiple internal discussions about whether to use Xiaomi's own funds to make cars or establish an independent company to raise funds?
After multiple discussions, it was finally agreed that the car business, as a key part of Xiaomi's ecosystem, must be entirely within the Xiaomi system, so it must be built with Xiaomi's own funds.
At the March press conference, Mr. Lei announced an investment of $10 billion (approximately $70 billion) in the automotive business, as we believe this is the threshold for the automotive industry to face a century long transformation.
In addition, Lu Weibing also stated that we are well aware of the importance of cash flow for the healthy operation of a company. After announcing the car manufacturing in 2021, our cash reserves increased from 100 billion to 150 billion in just over three years.
Not only is the automotive industry undergoing rapid reshuffling, but the mobile phone industry is also not completely reshuffling. All industries are undergoing rapid changes, and only through continuous self transformation can we adapt to the changes.
For car makers, if they want to squeeze onto the car making table, they can either invest $10 billion like Xiaomi to "bring capital into the group", or accumulate a certain market share like BYD and NIO. Otherwise, if they still rely on external blood transfusion like Jitsu, then this development model will inevitably be unsustainable.
Xiaomi is just a typical representative. For other players on the car making track, they are actually facing similar situations.
This indicates that the competition in the car manufacturing track has entered a completely new stage, and also represents a new direction for the car manufacturing track, which has gradually become clear.
three
Different from the new forces of car building trying to get on the card table of the automobile industry, the pioneers of car building in the traditional sense are also preparing with two hands.
On the one hand, they also apply new energy to their own vehicle models; On the other hand, they are also laying out new directions represented by autonomous driving.
For example, in 2024, Mercedes Benz became the first international car company to be approved to carry out L4 level urban and high-speed autonomous driving in Beijing. Compared to L3, L4 system can autonomously complete most driving tasks in busy urban areas without the need for driver intervention, including parking in and parking out, turning around, entering and exiting roundabouts, and unprotected left turns.
If we consider the layout of new energy vehicles by traditional car pioneers as "half a beat slower", then when the development of the car manufacturing track enters the stage of autonomous driving, they are "getting up early".
For the new forces in car manufacturing represented by BYD, NIO, and Xiaomi, they can gain the opportunity to compete with the pioneers in car manufacturing by relying on their layout in new energy driving methods. However, in order to stand firm, especially to win in the new cycle, they must also make efforts in autonomous driving.
If we consider the new energy era as the starting point of competition between new and old forces in the automotive industry, then autonomous driving will be the moment when new and old forces in the automotive industry truly compete in terms of hard power on the same arena.
We can also see a hint of this in the aftermath of Jiyue Automobile, as stated by Wang Yunpeng, Vice President of Baidu Group and President of the Intelligent Driving Business Group.
According to Wang Yunpeng, the autonomous driving and map navigation of Jiyue will be backed by Baidu. What does this mean? This indicates that in order to truly revive Jiyue and continue its story, efforts will inevitably be made in autonomous driving, and Baidu's autonomous driving technology will be needed to empower Jiyue.
If we connect this with Musk's efforts to land FSD, it is not difficult to see that in the upcoming year 2025, the old and new forces in car manufacturing will once again meet in autonomous driving and engage in a true battle of attrition.
epilogue
In 2025, the new and old forces in car manufacturing will engage in a true battle on autonomous driving.
We can see a hint of this from the deepening of the reshuffle on the car manufacturing track, and we can see a hint from Xiaomi's Lei Jun's decision to invest $10 billion as a threshold to squeeze onto the table.
In a sense, $10 billion is not only the threshold for Xiaomi to enter the market, but also the beginning of a new era in car manufacturing.
Do not underestimate the judgment of Lei Jun and the Xiaomi under his leadership that the automotive industry has entered a new stage.
If we consider the transition of the automotive industry from fossil fuels to new energy as a starting point, then the transition of the automotive industry from traditional driving to autonomous driving is a climax.
Starting from this, the old and new forces in the automotive industry will truly engage in a needle to wheat competition, which is the key to determining who will ultimately emerge victorious.
This article is from the WeChat official account "Meng Qi Bi Tan", written by Li Chong, 36 Krypton, which has been authorized to release.
The viewpoint of this article only represents the author himself, and the 36Kr platform only provides information storage space services.
不要低估雷军的判断
如果用一个词来形容现在的造车市场的话，「临界点」，无疑是再合适不过了。
无论是造车赛道上各色玩家们的持续洗牌，还是造车新旧势力竞争的激烈，无一不是这样一种现象的直接体现。
当造车市场的「临界点」到来，下一步必然将会进入到一个全新的阶段。如果对于这样一个阶段进行总结和定义的话，进入到真正意义上的造车新世代，无疑是再合适不过的了。
之所以会有这样的判断，其中一个很重要的原因在于，以往的造车，仅仅只是对于造车的驱动方式进行改造，即将传统意义上的化石能源，转变成为现代意义上的电能驱动。
凭借着新能源的低廉以及较低的碳排放，造车玩家们在汽车这一个产业站稳了脚跟。于是，我们不禁要问，仅仅只是对汽车的能源进行替代，难道真的是造车的终点吗？
对于造车赛道的头部玩家特斯拉的表现，我们可以非常直观地看出，未来造车赛道竞争的重点，必然将会从能源驱动的竞争，转移到驾驶方式的竞争上。
更为确切地说，在即将到来的2025年，造车新势力们与造车先驱者们将会在自动驾驶上再度相遇，并且上演贴身肉搏。
这一点，我们可以从雷军豪掷100亿美元，将此看成是上牌桌的门槛上，看出一丝端倪。
换句话说，我们不要低估雷军对于造车赛道业已进入到全新周期的判断。
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这，绝对不是危言耸听。
近些年以来，新能源汽车的火爆，特别是以特斯拉、比亚迪、蔚来、小鹏、理想为代表的造车新势力们的火爆，让人们想当然地认为，当今的造车赛道早已是造车新势力们的天下，那些被逼退到角落里的传统造车玩家们，早已不再有任何的机会。
如果仅仅只是以此来定义现在的汽车产业的话，其实是有些太过简单和武断了。
同外界所认为的造车赛道的竞争业已尘埃落定不同，笔者更加愿意将现在的造车赛道的玩家们的亮眼表现，看成是一种站稳脚跟的表现。
看看各大造车玩家们依然游走于盈亏的边缘，看看传统造车玩家们对于新能源的布局，以及对于自动驾驶的试水，我们可以非常明显地感受到，所谓的造车赛道的尘埃落定，绝不仅仅只会一件板上钉钉的事情。
纵然是在现在被逼退到角落里的造车新势力们，依然还有着翻身的机会。
如果对于这样一个翻身的机会进行总结和定义的话，以无人驾驶为代表的自动驾驶，必然是将会是一个主要方面。
几乎可以肯定的是，在即将到来的2025年，新旧造车的玩家们欲要真正留在牌桌上，欲要实现新的发展和突破，必然需要将发展的重心从以往的新能源，转移到以AI为主导的自动驾驶。
对于每一个造车玩家们来讲，只要真正挤上自动驾驶的牌桌，才能在新周期里有所斩获。
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事实上，有关造车赛道上的自动驾驶的竞争，早就已经开始。
无论是马斯克为了特斯拉的FSD的技术而四处奔走，还是百度的无人驾驶开始在不同城市的出租车市场上落地，乃至是华为开始将自动驾驶的技术应用到自身以及合作伙伴的身上，我们都可以看出，自动驾驶开始越来越多地成为造车玩家们的一个竞争的新焦点。
对于每一个想要继续留在新能源的牌桌上的玩家们来讲，只有在站稳了新能源造车的脚跟的情况下，布局自动驾驶，用自动驾驶来拉开与上一个阶段的造车玩家们之间的差距，才能真正将自身的发展带入到一个全新阶段。
当造车赛道的竞争进入到自动驾驶的新阶段，资本市场对于造车玩家们的关注将不再仅仅只是停留在能源驱动的方式上，而是更多地聚焦在以自动驾驶为代表的新领域里。
当资本的力量开始将关注的重点聚焦于此，我们还将会看到类似极越汽车的倒掉为代表的造车赛道的洗牌开始加剧的现象的发生。
日前，小米集团合伙人、总裁，手机部总裁，小米品牌总经理卢伟冰在微博上分享了小米独立造车相关背景，他表示：2021年2月，当小米决定造车后，内部曾经多次讨论过一个话题： 是用小米自有的资金造车，还是设立一家独立公司来融资？
经过多次讨论，最后达成一致：车业务作为小米生态的关键一环，必须全部在小米体系内，所以要用小米自有资金来造。
在3月发布会上，雷总宣布投入100亿美元(约700亿)来投入汽车业务，因为我们认为面对汽车行业百年之大变局，这是上牌桌的门槛。
此外，卢伟冰还表示，我们深知现金流对一个企业健康经营的重要性，在2021年宣布造车后，3年多的时间现金储备从1000亿净增到1500亿。
不仅仅是汽车行业在快速洗牌，手机行业也没有洗牌完。所有的行业都在快速变化中，只有自我不断变革，才能适应变化。
对于造车玩家们来讲，欲要挤上造车的牌桌，要么像小米一样投入100亿美元，「带资进组」，要么像比亚迪、蔚小理一样业已积累了一定的市场份额，否则，如果像极越一样依然依靠着外部的输血，那么，这样一种发展方式必然是无法持续的。
小米，仅仅只是比较典型的代表。对于造车赛道上的其他的玩家们来讲，其实，同样正在面临着类似的情况。
这预示着造车赛道的竞争进入到一个全新的阶段，同样代表着造车赛道的新方向，业已逐渐明晰。
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和造车新势力们想方设法地挤上汽车工业的牌桌不同，传统意义上的造车先驱者们同样正在进行着两手准备。
一方面，它们同样将新能源应用到自家的车型之中；另外一个方面，它们同样正在进行着以自动驾驶为代表的新方向的布局。
比如，在2024年，奔驰汽车就成为了首个获准在北京开展L4级城市和高速快速路自动驾驶的国际车企。相比L3，L4系统能在无需驾驶员接管的情况下，自主完成大部分场景驾驶任务，包括在繁忙的城区路段完成泊入泊出、调头、驶入使出环岛、无保护左转等动作。
如果我们将传统造车先驱者们对于新能源汽车的布局，看成是「慢了半拍」的话，那么，当造车赛道的发展进入到自动驾驶的阶段之后，它们则是「起了个大早」。
对于以比亚迪、蔚小理、小米为代表的造车新势力们来讲，它们可以凭借着在新能源驱动方式上的布局，获得了与造车先驱者们同场竞技的机会，但是，要站稳脚跟，特别是在新周期里取胜，必然还需要在自动驾驶上发力。
如果我们将新能源时代看成是造车新旧势力竞争的起始点的话，那么，自动驾驶将会是造车新旧势力真正在同一个擂台上比拼硬实力的时刻。
这一点，我们同样可以在极越汽车的善后事宜上，百度集团副总裁、智能驾驶事业群组总裁王云鹏的有关表态上，看出一丝端倪。
按照王云鹏的说法，极越的自动驾驶和地图导航，将会由百度来兜底。这说明什么？这说明真正想要让极越起死回生，想要让极越的故事继续，必然将会在自动驾驶上做文章，必然需要用百度的自动驾驶技术对极越进行赋能。
如果我们再将此与马斯克为了FSD的落地四处奔走联系在一起的话，不难看出，在即将到来的2025年，造车新旧势力们将会在自动驾驶上再度相遇，并且上演一场真正意义上的遭遇战。
结语
2025年，造车新旧势力们将会在自动驾驶上，上演一场真正意义上的遭遇战。
这一点，我们可以从造车赛道上的洗牌的深入上，看出一丝端倪，我们可以从小米雷军将投入100亿美元看成是挤上牌桌的门槛上，看出一丝端倪。
从某种意义上来讲，100亿美元，既是小米上牌桌的门槛，又是造车新战局的开端。
千万不要低估雷军以及他所带领下的小米，对于造车业已进入到新战局的判断。
如果我们将汽车工业从化石能源向新能源的转变看成是一个起点的话，那么，汽车工业从传统驾驶向自动驾驶的转变，则是一个高潮。
以此为开端，汽车工业的新旧势力们将会真正开启一场针尖对麦芒的新竞争，这才是决定谁究竟能够笑到最后的关键。
本文来自微信公众号“孟栖笔谈”，作者：礼崇，36氪经授权发布。
该文观点仅代表作者本人，36氪平台仅提供信息存储空间服务。