The essence of the food delivery war: the economic collapse of licking dogs, the next one is the family economy

Lu Shihan

Lu Shihan

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This article is from WeChat official account: Shi Han, the author: Lu Shihan's appreciation trumpet, and the picture is from Visual China

Urgently add a series about the food delivery war.

I never thought that the food delivery war would be highly related to our topic before, until I read relevant reports and data these days and realized that heroes in the world are like crucian carp crossing a river.

Last year we discussed a topic, what should you do if you realize the current situation and consequences of gender wars in society? Which industry should be laid out in advance?

The licking dog economy will collapse, and the movie and dating market will decline after losing the basic market for couples. Everyone can guess this,

But the problem is that it's useless to be bearish at this time, the key is to find a bullish entry point.

You know the film industry will collapse, but this process is difficult for you to make a profit. Only by guessing the rising market can you have a chance to discover opportunities.

After much consideration, everyone only thought about fishing, cycling, and digital cars. However, these few tracks are highly visible, and everyone knows that the male economy will definitely rise. It has already been rolled up, right?

Until a few days ago, I read several reports and realized that we had overlooked one direction.

That's takeout.

What is the mindset for taking out food? After the collapse of the dog licking economy, the family economy will also collapse.

Many people may be curious why several major companies are reopening the food delivery war recently, right? Many marketing and financial accounts have mentioned business level reasons.

But besides business reasons, another crucial point is the growth potential of the food delivery market itself.

In the next few years, the number of college graduates in China will reach millions every year. In the past, college graduates would quickly enter the peak of blind dates and marriages, and then enter the family. Once they entered the family, they basically bid farewell to takeout, right?

Whether from an economic perspective or traditional family culture, after marriage, it is highly likely that one will cook for themselves and not order takeout.

So today's soul question comes, what will be the marriage rate in the next few years?

This is the time to test your confidence in women's rights with real money and silver. Don't count your usual slogans, only those that involve real money and silver.

For example, you have special confidence in sisters. You believe that sisters can make two fat cats and one common person every year, and directly hit the marriage rate to zero.

If you calculate based on this, there are 12 million college students every year, all of whom are unmarried and single.

And the current employment environment also determines that most college graduates will not go to rural areas after graduation, but will flock to Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and new front lines.

So you can get a rough model that in the next few years, 12 million college students will enter big cities every year.

They won't get married, and most likely won't buy a house. After a hard day's work, the way they go home to eat is likely to be takeout.

The food delivery market is equivalent to an annual user growth of 12 million.

Of course, this model is very rough. For example, some people may say that graduating doesn't necessarily mean going to a big city. Maybe you just go back to your hometown and live with your parents?

Some people may also say that even in big cities, one person may not necessarily order takeout, and one person may also cook their own food.

All of these are possible, I completely agree.

But I believe there are several major trends that everyone cannot dispute:

In the next few years, the number of marriages will definitely decrease, the number of new families will definitely decrease, and the number of single people will definitely increase exponentially.

And this new generation group will be more focused on self perception, because they have no marriage goals or money saving needs, and they will be more willing to reward themselves. It's unlikely to come back after a tiring day washing vegetables and cooking, and the time cost is not very logical. They are likely to lean more towards takeout.

There should still be a coefficient here, for example, if the price of takeout is set to 15 while ensuring safety, then this generation of young people will completely embrace takeout. Similar to when young people in Japan embraced convenience store bento boxes.

And there is also a double insurance here. The reality is that men do not want to get married, but the mainstream perception is still focused on women's subsidies. Therefore, even if this issue is recognized, a policy shift time is needed. For example, in South Korea, the more subsidies are given to women, the lower the marriage rate. It took more than ten years to realize that we should subsidize men. Our ship is bigger than South Korea, so the turning speed should be slower.

So the fact is:

Food delivery is an industry with high social relevance, and it is not accurate to only look at industry data. You need to look at the overall social situation.

After the collapse of the licking dog economy, the next thing is the family economy. The decrease in families and the increase in the number of single people, coupled with the new generation of young single people preferring to order takeout, are all favorable factors for the three-tier rocket market, which is sure to rise.

Moreover, this increase is probably unreasonable, because the original data and experts ignored the battle effectiveness of sisters when predicting.

In 2023, you told the people at Datong Marriage Agency that your entire industry would go bankrupt in the next two years, and that any brand that is ten or twenty years old would not work. They must think you are crazy, and the data cannot support this. But for those who truly understand, just by looking at the Datong case, they know that the local marriage industry is doomed. The reality is that now in Datong, not to mention marriage agencies, the Civil Affairs Bureau has to set up some counters in shopping malls.

Data models need to explain logic, but reality won't explain logic to you.

So a key factor in judging the food delivery industry is your estimation of women's rights, the Chinese marriage and love market, and family economics.

You have great confidence in them, maybe we can achieve three great reunions next year, so the marriage rate can be estimated at zero, and food delivery may have double-digit growth.

You have general confidence in sisters. The marriage rate can only drop by 10 points, and the takeout industry must also be positive.

Now, everyone is very confident about sisters, so they all go to the takeaway market in Suoha.

This also gives everyone an inspiration:

Apart from the food delivery market, which other market belongs to the anti family industry and can benefit from the collapse of the family economy?

This article is from the WeChat official account: Shi Han, the author: Lu Shihan's appreciation trumpet

This content is the author's independent viewpoint and does not represent the stance of Tiger Sniff. Reproduction without permission is not allowed. Please contact for authorization matters hezuo@huxiu.com

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外卖大战本质：舔狗经济崩塌，下一个是家庭经济