My real name is Lu Jun

My real name is Lu Jun

24 times of the Smell Star Award

follow

This article is from the WeChat official account: Zhenjiaolujun0426, which was first published in October 2023. The author: Zhenjiaolujun0426. The title is from Visual China

Article Summary

The article points out that in the current economic environment, ordinary people's houses are unlikely to increase in price, and explores the development trends and influencing factors of the real estate industry.

• •    The general trend of the industry is that the increment gradually shrinks, and the second-hand housing market needs to reduce liquidity to eliminate the foam.

• •    Improving demand will become a powerful driving force in the real estate market and will be rapidly released.

• • ️   The supply chain will be reshaped, developers will be forced by product strength and customers, and the land market will also pursue urban upgrading.

Today, let me talk to you about a specific viewpoint.

As an information hub in the industry, "really called Lu Jun" almost daily maintains a large number of discussions with people from all walks of life about the house itself, various perspectives, and different contents of various viewpoints.

During my recent vacation, I met a quite interesting person named Axiang.

I have been away from the industry for almost two years and have stopped working in real estate.

It is precisely because he did not work in real estate that he transformed from a practitioner to a commentator.

It is precisely because of this role transition that some very interesting content has been exchanged.

I always remember him repeatedly emphasizing a viewpoint to me: we are often overshadowed by extreme values. So what is the median of the real estate industry?

I spent about an afternoon organizing some of the content and sharing it with everyone.

1、 The overall trend of the industry

There are two major trends in the real estate industry, namely the gradual contraction of increment and the slowdown of stock flow. This is a reality that everyone must see.

But the contraction of increment combined with the slowdown of stock liquidity will lead to another thing: increment will try its best to erode the liquidity of stock before shrinking.

And the way to nibble is one way: to attract through better product strength.

In an era where housing prices will not rise, what can affect customer preferences is the product quality of the house. New houses are not only new but also good.

The biggest PK in the competition for first-hand houses in the future is the PK of product strength, which can induce customers to give up buying second-hand houses.

Compared to others, products in the second-hand market have no other means of confrontation besides price.

At present, there is almost no successful product on the market for indoor decoration and beautification of second-hand houses. Customers have shifted their focus from simple indoor specifications to systematic considerations of the entire community in terms of product strength.

2、 How to get rid of the foam in the secondary market

Now, we have seen clearly and simply how to eliminate the foam in the first-hand house.

It is a way to limit the overall price from land to first-hand houses, so as to ensure that there is no foam at the first-hand house track.

And what about second-hand houses?

Second hand houses are relatively complex because they cannot be systematically adjusted for supply and demand. Therefore, the first thing to do is to reduce the liquidity of second-hand houses.

So in essence, the model of price limit for first-hand housing reduces the liquidity of second-hand housing, and then makes the second-hand housing price fall into the range of first-hand housing, which is essentially a way of clearing the foam of second-hand housing.

This model may come at a cost, but it also minimizes the risk and makes the overall risk of the industry more manageable.

So if you are aware of this trend, then you need to recognize one thing: ordinary people's houses are unlikely to rise in the coming years.

The liquidity of ordinary houses located in the median has decreased, and the demand for housing at the bottom is quickly replenished through the rental market, while high-end residential buildings at the top of the tower have reshaped their product strength through the first-hand market

This is almost what the entire real estate market is looking forward to in the future.

3、 Improvement will be released faster

If there is a force that will appear fierce in the real estate market, then there is no doubt that it is improving sexual demand.

This part of the future will be most clearly and greatly stimulated by the market.

Firstly, the entire industry will definitely strongly support developers who can produce products.

Yes, you read it right, it's a strong support.

The biggest joke in our industry is that in the past few years, some large enterprises not only have their companies riddled with problems, but the darkest humor is that they cannot produce products.

This has become a joke for many people.

So, in recent years, leading enterprises and local infrastructure enterprises must be able to produce products and be able to produce outstanding products, which has become both a clear rule and a dark melody.

So the product strength of the entire industry will rapidly improve in the next two years.

Internal competition to the extreme, as this is the industry's biggest demand.

At the same time, customers will also force product upgrades.

One very important reason why Hangzhou's product strength has improved so quickly in recent years is that its customers are picky enough.

Customers in Hangzhou never care about land prices or where the developers come from. Everyone has been open-minded about the products and has a unified standard. Even protecting rights is very professional.

The driving force for future customers to force developers to upgrade their product capabilities will also become stronger.

So in other words, for real estate companies, they will be threatened by two forces at the same time, thereby enhancing their product strength.

Under such a trend, the demand for improvement will be rapidly released.

If there is only one surging force in the real estate market, it is probably like this.

4、 Supply chain will reshape

In the entire industry, everyone is paying attention to developers, but this logic is one-sided. The biggest change is actually in the upstream and downstream of the industry, which is the supply chain itself.

Firstly, a large number of dependent party B almost collapsed with the downfall of various enterprises, and they also collapsed the fastest.

The remaining "Party B" is seriously considering whether to continue in the industry.

For developers, transformation is crucial, and for practitioners in the supply chain, these are all life and death matters.

Many surviving second party members have also abandoned this industry as a result.

Enterprises that are still struggling in the industry will undoubtedly drive the transformation of the supply chain itself, and pricing standards, payment cycles, and service standards will be redefined.

At the same time, the talent system in the industry will also be reshuffled.

I have heard too many friends say something similar to me recently: I have an old leader who resigned and went to Lianjia.

This statement actually indicates a trend that developers who think they are powerful are not as powerful.

And those who continue to deepen their cultivation have their own clear strategic intentions and core competitiveness.

This model also attracts secondary allocation of industry talents.

In addition, everyone will have a new understanding of the type of enterprise.

The definition of a good real estate brand is no longer based on doing more and having a large scale. Similar to being close to Anaya, Luhu, and Ideal Country, these have become labels and a spirit.

The monogamy that I advocate in the industry is essentially the same logic. Everyone redefines the developer's brand through the project itself.

5、 Land no longer only pursues benefits

And the demands of the entire land market are also changing in the future, no longer just pursuing the amount, but hoping that land transfer can bring about urban upgrading.

Recently, many people have been reflecting on what the Pudong model is.

The fundamental of the Pudong model is to rely on land as a bargaining chip to attract capital to complete the landing of the industrial chain and the rooting of urban supporting facilities.

Essentially, in the past 30 years, Pudong has been accompanied by land development, not only completing urban development, but also leaving a lot of sustainable management momentum for the city.

In many other places, land is simply sold and earned.

So this matter will be increasingly adjusted and corrected in the future.

At the same time, land parcels are becoming increasingly complex.

While located in the complex central area, the attributes of business formats are also more diverse, and there are more bundled additional content.

These changes are also driving changes in land attributes. This is also why more and more developers are saying to the public that they are no longer simple developers, but urban co builders.

These are all sensitively sensed changes in wind direction.

But what I want to emphasize is that even if you smell it, you really need to ask yourself if you have the ability. Otherwise, you will have to watch as high-quality land is taken away by large state-owned enterprises, central enterprises, and Hong Kong funded enterprises.

6、 The industry is waiting for the next round of purchasing power

So.

So, so.

What is the purpose of the industry's adjustment like this?

Actually, we are waiting for the next round of more lasting purchasing power to emerge.

Of course, these issues are no longer issues of the industry itself. The future purchasing power will depend on the recovery of the entire economy and the rise of key industries.

And what the real estate market is waiting for is the next generation of wealth creators in this economic cycle.

The fundamental issue of the real estate market lies in supply and demand. Neither credit nor taxes can solve the fundamental problem. Only with sustained purchasing power can the real estate market itself be more sustainable.

Regarding most people's houses, the overall market price and future trends still require the support of the entire economic cycle and the income of purchasing power groups.

It's not likely to rise now, but as Ah Xiang said, they are all waiting for the next cycle.

Nowadays, the industry is undergoing supply side reforms, adjusting developer expectations, adjusting market product strength, and also adjusting the entire industry cycle. Everything is already being adjusted in the right direction.

What about the remaining propositions? Actually, this is not a proposition that this article can answer today, but regardless, it is worth waiting for.

7、 Epilogue

Record another paragraph from Ah Xiang's last words to me for your reference:

Many times, it is necessary to distinguish between whether it is possible, whether it is possible, whether it should be, and whether it is necessary.

Numbers are just results, and we need to see more of the process of events in order to be more confident about the numbers that will appear in the future.

For the entire industry, housing prices are only the result of development, not the goal pursued.

Encourage everyone together.

This article is from WeChat official account: Lu Jun (ID: zhenjiaolujun0426), the author: Lu Jun

This content is the author's independent viewpoint and does not represent the Tiger Smell position. Reproduction is not allowed without permission. For authorization matters, please contact us hezuo@huxiu.com

If you have any objections or complaints about this manuscript, please contact us tougao@huxiu.com

People who are changing and want to change the world are all on the Tiger Smell app

“普通人的房子，都不太会涨”

真叫卢俊关注